Stanford vs. Duke Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Duke gets at Stanford: 55th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 103rd at closing out passing downs. Stanford projects no clear way in against Duke. Duke is also 37th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 74th.
How
DUKEattacks
STAN
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
DUKE#55 of 138STAN#103 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
DUKE#37 of 138STAN#74 of 138
The two teams
Stanford
Stanford is in year 1 under Tavita Pritchard. The strengths are defensive, led by 28th at defending the run. The way in is 132nd at running it, and they are 123rd in the push up front.
Stanford has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#132projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#123projected
- Offensefirst and second down#121projected
Duke
Duke throws it: Manny Diaz's offenses have been pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 123rd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −22.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Duke has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#123projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#119projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#117projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1615, STAN Elo 1354 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -9.1 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
STAN86th74thDUKEDUKE90th117thSTANThrough the air
STAN44th103rdDUKEDUKE113th137thSTANOn the ground
STAN103rd31stDUKEDUKE37th34thSTANStaying on the field
STAN83rd44thDUKEDUKE90th133rdSTANTaking care of it
STAN1st75thDUKEDUKE21st45thSTAN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| STAN | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.3 (#88) | CORE overall | +4.6 (#53) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / -5 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 2.78 | allowed / drive | 0.25 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Stanford vs. Duke?
Gridpex's model favors Duke with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Stanford vs. Duke?
The model projects Duke by 9.1.
What time is Stanford vs. Duke and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET, at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →