Baylor vs. Kansas Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Baylor gets at Kansas: 37th at throwing it, against a unit 123rd at defending the pass. Where Kansas gets at Baylor: 14th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 106th at stuffing runs at the line. Baylor is also 17th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 99th.
How
BAYattacks
KU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · 23% this season, 2 games
BAY+0.35#37 of 138KU+0.48#123 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 20% this season, 2 games
BAY45%#17 of 138KU27%#99 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 52% this season, 2 games
BAY1.23#75 of 138KU1.55#131 of 138
HowKUattacksBAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 2 games in
KU12.5%#14 of 138BAY23.5%#106 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 45% this season, 2 games
KU1.55#20 of 138BAY1.30#59 of 138
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#17 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#27 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line23.5%#106 of 138
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 131st at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 123rd at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line12.5%#14 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.55#20 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line30.2%#26 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.55#131 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.48#123 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1473, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +1.3 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY107th63rdKUKU70th22ndBAYThrough the air
BAY20th67thKUKU53rd43rdBAYOn the ground
BAY69th60thKUKU62nd33rdBAYStaying on the field
BAY82nd46thKUKU77th99thBAYTaking care of it
BAY124th76thKUKU104th22ndBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBaylor leads 19–4 · Baylor has won 14 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| BAY | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.1 (#33) | CORE overall | +2.2 (#63) |
| +6 / -6 | offense / defense | +3 / +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Kansas?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Kansas?
The model projects Baylor by 1.3.
What time is Baylor vs. Kansas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →