BYU vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where BYU gets at Colorado State: 6th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 129th at generating havoc. Colorado State projects no clear way in against BYU. BYU is also 15th at throwing it, against a unit 129th.
How
BYUattacks
CSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
BYU#6 of 138CSU#129 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BYU#15 of 138CSU#129 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BYU#17 of 138CSU#131 of 138
The two teams
BYU
BYU is in year 11 under Kalani Sitake, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 125th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
BYU has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#6projected
- Offensefirst and second down#9projected
- Offenserunning it#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#125projected
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 131st at closing out passing downs, and they are 130th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#131projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#130projected
- Defensethrowing it#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1336, BYU Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +24.2 (5% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BYU29th114thCSUCSU13th37thBYUThrough the air
BYU84th57thCSUCSU24th56thBYUOn the ground
BYU26th113thCSUCSU28th20thBYUStaying on the field
BYU4th31stCSUCSU34th89thBYUTaking care of it
BYU1st1stCSUCSU21st9thBYU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBYU leads 39–27–3 · BYU has won 7 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| BYU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.1 (#34) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#89) |
| +7 / -5 | offense / defense | +0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win BYU vs. Colorado State?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 95% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for BYU vs. Colorado State?
The model projects BYU by 24.2.
What time is BYU vs. Colorado State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET, at Canvas Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →