Florida vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 2.8 toward 
AUB
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  FLA −2.5 | AUB −0.3 |
| AUB win | 45% | 51% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Florida gets at Auburn: 27th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 60th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Auburn gets at Florida: 32nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 108th at stuffing runs at the line.
HowFLAattacksAUB
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected · 1 game in
FLA67%#27 of 138AUB40%#60 of 138
HowAUBattacksFLA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
AUB16.4%#32 of 138FLA10.0%#108 of 138
The two teams
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 15th at moving the ball on the ground. The way in is 108th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 17% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground60%#15 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points6.43#16 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down70%#18 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line10.0%#108 of 138
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at defending the run. The way in is 119th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 106th at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defenserunning it-0.26#5 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.11#8 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.23#22 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.18#119 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.16#106 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimate- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1688, FLA Elo 1658 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -0.3 (51% to win) — 2.8 points clear of AUB's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FLA5th33rdAUBAUB62nd26thFLAThrough the air
FLA19th117thAUBAUB46th78thFLAOn the ground
FLA19th25thAUBAUB24th43rdFLAStaying on the field
FLA58th62ndAUBAUB32nd89thFLATaking care of it
FLA77th22ndAUBAUB105th9thFLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 44–39–2 · 39% have been one-possession games
| FLA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 (#17) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#59) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
| 6.00 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 9% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida vs. Auburn?
Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida vs. Auburn?
The model projects Auburn by 0.3.
What time is Florida vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →