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Which is the best college football conference in 2020?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Third down conversion · 2020

FBS medianFBS IndependentsConference USAPac-12Mid-AmericanSun BeltSECAmerican Athlet…ACCMountain WestBig TenBig 12

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents449.1%0.7%Notre Dame 49.7%
Conference USA1144.2%5.0%North Texas 48.3%
Pac-12644.0%4.8%Stanford 50.0%
Mid-American843.6%11.9%Ball State 49.1%
Sun Belt1042.6%7.8%Coastal Carolina 55.1%
SEC1442.5%15.6%Alabama 61.3%
American Athletic1142.3%11.1%UCF 50.6%
ACC1442.3%6.8%North Carolina 48.2%
Mountain West1141.8%5.4%Air Force 48.5%
Big Ten1339.0%5.0%Ohio State 50.9%
Big 121038.0%7.8%Iowa State 45.9%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.