Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

AnalysisAll analysis →

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

MetricCORE overallCORE offenseCORE defenseOffense EPA/playDefense EPA/play allowedOffense success rateOffense explosivenessPoints per drivePoints per drive allowedAverage starting field positionThird down conversionTeam talent composite

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Offense explosiveness · 2015

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

All leagues ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Ten Conference USA FBS Independents Mid-American Mountain West Pac-12 SEC Sun Belt

Conference	Teams	Median	Spread	Best	Worst
FBS Independents	3	1.3	0.144	BYU 1.3	1.2
Mountain West	12	1.2	0.095	New Mexico 1.4	1.1
ACC	14	1.2	0.169	Virginia 1.3	1.1
American Athletic	12	1.2	0.061	Houston 1.3	1.1
Mid-American	13	1.2	0.074	Bowling Green 1.4	1.0
Sun Belt	11	1.2	0.082	New Mexico State 1.5	0.999
Big 12	10	1.2	0.154	Oklahoma State 1.4	1.1
Pac-12	12	1.2	0.136	Arizona 1.3	1.1
Big Ten	14	1.2	0.127	Penn State 1.3	1.1
SEC	14	1.2	0.158	Kentucky 1.3	1.1
Conference USA	13	1.2	0.114	Southern Miss 1.5	1.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.