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Which is the best college football conference in 2022?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Third down conversion · 2022

FBS medianPac-12Conference USASECAmerican Athlet…FBS IndependentsBig 12Big TenACCMid-AmericanSun BeltMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-121245.5%13.4%Washington 60.1%
Conference USA1143.4%6.3%UTSA 48.1%
SEC1442.0%7.9%Georgia 51.7%
American Athletic1141.1%7.3%SMU 48.4%
FBS Independents740.8%8.5%Notre Dame 48.0%
Big 121040.6%3.6%Kansas 53.3%
Big Ten1440.2%6.2%Minnesota 52.8%
ACC1439.6%10.7%Florida State 53.0%
Mid-American1239.4%7.4%Eastern Michigan 47.1%
Sun Belt1438.9%8.3%Georgia Southern 49.5%
Mountain West1237.5%7.6%Air Force 48.8%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.