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Which is the best college football conference in 2021?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive · 2021

FBS medianFBS IndependentsBig 12Pac-12Mid-AmericanACCSECAmerican Athlet…Mountain WestBig TenConference USASun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents72.71.7Army 3.2
Big 12102.60.533Oklahoma 3.3
Pac-12122.40.982UCLA 3.1
Mid-American122.40.544Northern Illinois 2.8
ACC142.30.884Wake Forest 3.1
SEC142.30.798Alabama 3.3
American Athletic112.30.923Cincinnati 3.0
Mountain West122.10.759Air Force 2.9
Big Ten142.00.776Ohio State 3.9
Conference USA142.00.646Western Kentucky 3.5
Sun Belt102.01.1Coastal Carolina 3.6

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.