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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2016

FBS medianBig 12Mountain WestSECACCFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Pac-12Mid-AmericanConference USABig TenSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 12100.2170.081Oklahoma 0.371
Mountain West120.1970.087New Mexico 0.329
ACC140.1920.166Louisville 0.323
SEC140.1920.092Alabama 0.247
FBS Independents40.1660.093Army 0.239
American Athletic120.1540.166South Florida 0.357
Pac-12120.1460.117Washington 0.321
Mid-American120.1460.073Western Michigan 0.362
Conference USA130.1430.123Western Kentucky 0.385
Big Ten140.1140.064Penn State 0.223
Sun Belt110.1000.044App State 0.183

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.