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Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2019

FBS medianFBS IndependentsBig 12Pac-12Mid-AmericanSECBig TenSun BeltMountain WestAmerican Athlet…Conference USAACC

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents645.7%6.6%Army 48.0%
Big 121044.7%2.1%Oklahoma 54.1%
Pac-121244.4%5.9%Washington State 51.0%
Mid-American1244.1%6.9%Ohio 49.1%
SEC1443.6%5.9%LSU 56.1%
Big Ten1443.5%8.6%Ohio State 50.6%
Sun Belt1043.3%6.5%Louisiana 52.0%
Mountain West1243.1%5.3%Air Force 52.8%
American Athletic1242.7%5.2%Navy 48.0%
Conference USA1441.8%5.2%Louisiana Tech 46.0%
ACC1441.5%3.1%Clemson 50.9%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.