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Which is the best college football conference in 2017?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense EPA/play · 2017

FBS medianFBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…Big 12Pac-12SECSun BeltMountain WestConference USAACCMid-AmericanBig Ten

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents40.2320.082Army 0.289
American Athletic120.1990.111UCF 0.357
Big 12100.1950.110Oklahoma 0.426
Pac-12120.1850.081Arizona 0.323
SEC140.1740.084Georgia 0.291
Sun Belt120.1500.106App State 0.237
Mountain West120.1470.113Colorado State 0.268
Conference USA140.1370.105Florida Atlantic 0.309
ACC140.1290.117Louisville 0.337
Mid-American120.1020.122Ohio 0.274
Big Ten140.0990.056Penn State 0.285

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.