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Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive · 2015

FBS medianBig 12Pac-12American Athlet…FBS IndependentsMountain WestACCSECBig TenConference USAMid-AmericanSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 12102.41.2Baylor 3.5
Pac-12122.40.657Stanford 3.4
American Athletic122.30.828Navy 3.7
FBS Independents32.10.895Notre Dame 2.9
Mountain West122.10.983Boise State 2.7
ACC142.10.624North Carolina 3.3
SEC142.00.799Arkansas 3.2
Big Ten142.00.872Ohio State 2.8
Conference USA131.90.527Western Kentucky 3.3
Mid-American131.90.423Bowling Green 3.3
Sun Belt111.80.528Georgia Southern 3.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.