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Which is the best college football conference in 2018?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive allowed · 2018

FBS medianSECBig TenPac-12ACCMountain WestSun BeltConference USAMid-AmericanBig 12FBS IndependentsAmerican Athlet…

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC141.91.0Alabama 1.2
Big Ten142.00.995Michigan State 1.2
Pac-12122.00.531California 1.2
ACC142.20.711Clemson 0.917
Mountain West122.20.957Fresno State 1.1
Sun Belt102.21.3App State 1.2
Conference USA142.20.811Southern Miss 1.5
Mid-American122.20.972Eastern Michigan 1.6
Big 12102.30.362Iowa State 1.8
FBS Independents62.30.917Notre Dame 1.5
American Athletic122.40.610Cincinnati 1.4

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.