Wyoming vs. San José State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where San José State gets at Wyoming: 57th in the push up front, against a unit 92nd at holding the line of scrimmage. Wyoming projects no clear way in against San José State.
How
SJSUattacks
WYO
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 28% this season, 3 games
SJSU3.18#57 of 138WYO2.80#92 of 138
The two teams
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 131st at keeping a clean pocket.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#134 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss17.9%#131 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.09#129 of 138
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#6 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#134 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down55%#133 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1413, WYO Elo 1300 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +6.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WYO117th78thSJSUSJSU69th104thWYOThrough the air
WYO127th118thSJSUSJSU48th97thWYOOn the ground
WYO86th75thSJSUSJSU72nd97thWYOStaying on the field
WYO129th107thSJSUSJSU104th97thWYOTaking care of it
WYO133rd22ndSJSUSJSU77th75thWYO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 8–7 · 40% have been one-possession games
| WYO | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.9 (#123) | CORE overall | +3.6 (#57) |
| -10 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / -6 |
| 1.00 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 3.50 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -16 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Wyoming vs. San José State?
Gridpex's model favors Wyoming with a 69% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wyoming vs. San José State?
The model projects Wyoming by 6.8.
What time is Wyoming vs. San José State and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET, at CEFCU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →