West Georgia vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WESTTeam statsARST
- Q4 2:31ARSTSolomon Baggett 33 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–52
- Q4 9:49ARSTDrew Dickey 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–45
- Q3 1:43ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 8:26ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:13ARSTFive Hamilton 91 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:05WESTT.J. Lockley 37 Yd pass from Colton Fitzgerald (Logan Lopez Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:19ARSTNoah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:28ARSTJaylen Bonelli 30 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 28 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WEST ahead, below = ARST ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassColton Fitzgerald 14/24, 149 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChristian Monfort 6 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecT.J. Lockley 6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrey Owens 13/17, 135 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSolomon Baggett 8 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChauncy Cobb 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of West Georgia vs. Arkansas State?
West Georgia 7, Arkansas State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARST) was correct.
| WEST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 246 | Total yards | 391 |
| 174 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/34 | Comp/Att | 13/17 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-97 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 27:58 | Possession | 32:02 |
- Q4 2:31ARSTSolomon Baggett 33 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–52
- Q4 9:49ARSTDrew Dickey 4 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–45
- Q3 1:43ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 8:26ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:13ARSTFive Hamilton 91 Yd Interception Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:05WESTT.J. Lockley 37 Yd pass from Colton Fitzgerald (Logan Lopez Kick)7–21
- Q2 1:19ARSTNoah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:28ARSTJaylen Bonelli 30 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–14
- Q2 12:50ARSTChauncy Cobb 28 Yd pass from Trey Owens (Clune Van Andel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -19.4 (87% to win) — 12.1 points clear of WEST's market line of -31.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →