Southern Utah vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SOUTTeam statsCSU
- Q4 12:31CSUHauss Hejny 75 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)24–58
- Q4 12:44SOUTJayden Rogers 37 Yd Field Goal 24–51
- Q3 5:25CSUKali Nguma 23 Yd Field Goal 21–51
- Q2 0:03CSUKali Nguma 51 Yd Field Goal 21–48
- Q2 0:32CSUTerrence Smith Jr. 33 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)21–45
- Q2 1:54CSUJackson Harper 17 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)21–38
- Q2 3:24CSUMel Brown 73 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–31
- Q2 4:12SOUTFloyd Chalk 3 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)21–24
- Q2 9:57SOUTFloyd Chalk 58 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 12:58CSUMel Brown 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–24
- Q1 4:54CSUKali Nguma 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 9:10SOUTDavid Spjut 18 Yd pass from Will Burns (Jayden Rogers Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:21CSUTerrence Smith Jr. 38 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:13CSUCedric Ross 68 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SOUT ahead, below = CSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassWill Burns 12/23, 233 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushFloyd Chalk 17 CAR, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMark Bails 4 REC, 138 YDS
- PassHauss Hejny 18/30, 325 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushMel Brown 9 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJackson Harper 6 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Utah vs. Colorado State?
Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CSU) was correct.
| SOUT | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 442 | Total yards | 678 |
| 236 | Passing yards | 382 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 296 |
| 18 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 22/37 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 9.3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-42 | Penalties | 2-20 |
| 33:18 | Possession | 26:42 |
- Q4 12:31CSUHauss Hejny 75 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)24–58
- Q4 12:44SOUTJayden Rogers 37 Yd Field Goal 24–51
- Q3 5:25CSUKali Nguma 23 Yd Field Goal 21–51
- Q2 0:03CSUKali Nguma 51 Yd Field Goal 21–48
- Q2 0:32CSUTerrence Smith Jr. 33 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)21–45
- Q2 1:54CSUJackson Harper 17 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)21–38
- Q2 3:24CSUMel Brown 73 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–31
- Q2 4:12SOUTFloyd Chalk 3 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)21–24
- Q2 9:57SOUTFloyd Chalk 58 Yd Run (Jayden Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 12:58CSUMel Brown 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–24
- Q1 4:54CSUKali Nguma 40 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 9:10SOUTDavid Spjut 18 Yd pass from Will Burns (Jayden Rogers Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:21CSUTerrence Smith Jr. 38 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:13CSUCedric Ross 68 Yd pass from Hauss Hejny (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -25.7 (93% to win) — 5.7 points clear of CSU's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →