Ohio vs. Kent State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at Kent State: 24th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 131st at generating havoc. Where Kent State gets at Ohio: 12th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 95th at keeping everything in front of them. Ohio is also 25th at running it, against a unit 125th.
How
OHIOattacks
KENT
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#24 of 138KENT#131 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
OHIO#25 of 138KENT#125 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
OHIO#4 of 138KENT#100 of 138
HowKENTattacksOHIO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENT#12 of 138OHIO#95 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#24projected
- Offenserunning it#25projected
Kent State
Kent State is in year 2 under Mark Carney. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 133rd at running it.
Kent State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#134projected
- Offenserunning it#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 1056, OHIO Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +8 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO130th125thKENTKENT112th126thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO128th105thKENTKENT115th126thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO80th111thKENTKENT88th126thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO46th70thKENTKENT43rd137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO21st75thKENTKENT105th107thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio leads 38–22–2 · Ohio has won 2 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | -23.2 (#137) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -8 / +15 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 6.22 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. Kent State?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. Kent State?
The model projects Ohio by 8.0.
What time is Ohio vs. Kent State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Dix Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →