Montana State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MONTTeam statsNEV
- Q4 1:10MONTMyles Sansted 29 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q4 11:38NEVAJ Bianco pass to M. Brown for 28 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (J. McFadden KICK)17–7
- Q2 5:39MONTAdam Jones 6 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)17–0
- Q1 1:35MONTMyles Sansted 45 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0
How it was won
Early scoring swings and superior efficiency carried Montana State to victory
Jones' go‑ahead TD
Adam Jones’s 6‑yard rush early in Q2 turned a 10‑0 lead into a 17‑0 advantage, boosting Montana State’s win chance by 19 points.
Montana State ran a 50% success rate versus Nevada’s 41.9%, and its passing added +0.13 EPA per play while Nevada’s was –0.06, explaining the steady lead.
Lamson’s passing
Justin Lamson completed 15 of 23 for 179 yards and a touchdown, keeping Montana State’s offense moving despite Nevada’s stronger rush yardage.
Montana State punt
On 4th‑and‑1 at the 49 in Q3, Montana State punted instead of going for it, costing an expected 1.6 points according to the model.
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MONT ahead, below = NEV ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJustin Lamson 15/23, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAdam Jones 25 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaco Dowler 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassAJ Bianco 12/20, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Kelley 17 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecMarshaun Brown 3 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Montana State vs. Nevada?
Montana State 20, Nevada 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MONT | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Total yards | 349 |
| 179 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 182 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 19/36 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 13-125 | Penalties | 9-86 |
| 32:42 | Possession | 27:18 |
- Q4 1:10MONTMyles Sansted 29 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q4 11:38NEVAJ Bianco pass to M. Brown for 28 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (J. McFadden KICK)17–7
- Q2 5:39MONTAdam Jones 6 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)17–0
- Q1 1:35MONTMyles Sansted 45 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:05MONTJ. Lamson pass to D. Steel for 24 yds, for a TD ( KICK) (M. Sansted KICK)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NEV -11 (74% to win) — 16.5 points clear of NEV's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →