Lafayette vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LAFATeam statsCONN
- Q4 0:44LAFAPayton Greer 2 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–56
- Q4 3:07CONNRaymond Liggins III 60 Yd pass from Tucker McDonald (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–56
- Q3 2:36CONNTrey Cornist 55 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–49
- Q3 10:37CONNKalieb Osborne 11 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–42
- Q2 2:36CONNKenji Christian 25 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–35
- Q2 9:14CONNCyncir Bowers 16 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:43CONNKalieb Osborne 9 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:15CONNKenji Christian 18 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:50CONNJavon Brown 24 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–7
How the model called it
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
There was no drama to speak of. UConn dismantles Lafayette, 56-7 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. UConn led from start to finish and never let Lafayette within striking distance. Kalieb Osborne threw for 265 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran eight times for 90 yards and two scores.
- PassDaniel Lipovski 16/33, 102 YDS
- RushMalachi Gamble 6 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecNick Bierman 4 REC, 30 YDS
- PassKalieb Osborne 19/26, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKalieb Osborne 8 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJavon Brown 6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCONN up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Lafayette vs. UConn?
Lafayette 7, UConn 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CONN) was correct.
| LAFA | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 209 | Total yards | 671 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 370 |
| 64 | Rushing yards | 301 |
| 19 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 21/42 | Comp/Att | 25/33 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 11-134 |
| 28:18 | Possession | 31:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:39 LAFA go for it on 4th & 6 at CONN 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:44LAFAPayton Greer 2 Yd Run (Jack Simonetta Kick)7–56
- Q4 3:07CONNRaymond Liggins III 60 Yd pass from Tucker McDonald (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–56
- Q3 2:36CONNTrey Cornist 55 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–49
- Q3 10:37CONNKalieb Osborne 11 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–42
- Q2 2:36CONNKenji Christian 25 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–35
- Q2 9:14CONNCyncir Bowers 16 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:43CONNKalieb Osborne 9 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:15CONNKenji Christian 18 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:50CONNJavon Brown 24 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -23.5 (92% to win) — 2.5 points clear of CONN's market line of -21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Kalieb Osborne produced 11 of UConn's 16 explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
UConn produced 16 plays of 15+ yards to Lafayette's 2, chiefly Kalieb Osborne (involved in 11), Javon Brown (involved in 3) and Kenji Christian (involved in 2). UConn scored on 57% of its drives to Lafayette's 8%: Kalieb Osborne (24 pts), Kenji Christian (12 pts) and Javon Brown (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Kalieb Osborne threw for 265 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran eight times for 90 yards and two scores, with three of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in 11 plays of 15 yards or more. Kenji Christian ran seven times for 46 yards and one score and caught two passes for 22 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20. Javon Brown caught six passes for 92 yards, one of them for a touchdown — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Lafayette, Daniel Lipovski threw for 102 yards on 33 attempts and lost 13 yards on three carries, including two third-down conversions. Mason Kuehner caught two passes for 12 yards. Payton Greer ran two times for 4 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20. John Lista was the disruptive one for UConn: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3.5 tackles.
What Lafayette has to fix
Lafayette was not without production. Payton Greer ran two times for 4 yards and one score, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
Who got home
Two names to keep, all for Lafayette: Beckham Dee (1 INT, 6.5 tackles) and Darrick LeBeouf (1 INT, 4 tackles).
How we got here
UConn struck first through Kalieb Osborne, led 35-0 at the half and Lafayette got the final points on a late touchdown by Payton Greer.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for UConn. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Payton Greer was responsible for 6 of Lafayette's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →