Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Alabama gets at Vanderbilt: 25th at throwing it, against a unit 73rd at defending the pass. Vanderbilt projects no clear way in against Alabama. Alabama is also 19th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 59th.
How
ALAattacks
VAN
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ALA#25 of 138VAN#73 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
ALA#19 of 138VAN#59 of 138 - 3
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ALA#76 of 138VAN#114 of 138
The two teams
Alabama
Alabama throws it: Kalen DeBoer's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethrowing it#10projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Defensefirst and second down#12projected
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in year 6 under Clark Lea, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at running it. The way in is 114th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Vanderbilt has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#2projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#2projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1753, ALA Elo 1883 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -1.1 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ALA84th48thVANVAN96th11thALAThrough the air
ALA72nd52ndVANVAN72nd35thALAOn the ground
ALA47th28thVANVAN89th4thALAStaying on the field
ALA34th4thVANVAN104th1stALATaking care of it
ALA105th75thVANVAN21st22ndALA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 64–19–4 · 34% have been one-possession games
| ALA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.5 (#8) | CORE overall | +13.4 (#25) |
| +9 / -15 | offense / defense | +12 / -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
Gridpex's model favors Vanderbilt with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 1.1.
What time is Alabama vs. Vanderbilt and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FirstBank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →