Air Force vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Air Force gets at Army: 3rd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 128th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Army gets at Air Force: 9th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 137th at generating havoc. Air Force is also 16th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 127th.
How
AFattacks
ARMY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
AF#3 of 138ARMY#128 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
AF#16 of 138ARMY#127 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
AF#37 of 138ARMY#125 of 138
HowARMYattacksAF
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#9 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#10 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#42 of 138AF#138 of 138
The two teams
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at defending the pass, and they are 138th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#138projected
- Defenserunning it#138projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#138projected
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 131st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1524, AF Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -10 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AF82nd61stARMYARMY19th51stAFThrough the air
AF134th46thARMYARMY131st23rdAFOn the ground
AF5th53rdARMYARMY1st54thAFStaying on the field
AF30th73rdARMYARMY34th43rdAFTaking care of it
AF21st126thARMYARMY21st45thAF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 38–21–1 · Army has won 3 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| AF | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.9 (#127) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#96) |
| -1 / +14 | offense / defense | -2 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Air Force vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Air Force vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 10.0.
What time is Air Force vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET, at Michie Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →