Florida A&M vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Florida A&M

09

Miami1-0

▸0056

Final

Hard Rock Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
FLOR	3	3	3	0	9
MIA	15	10	21	10	56

FLORTeam statsMIA

190Total yards549

138Pass324

52Rush225

13First downs31

3-133rd down8-12

3Turnovers0

25:22Possession34:38

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:00MIAAbram Murray 38 Yd Field Goal 9–56
• Q4 14:23MIAJordan Lyle 1 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)9–53
• Q3 3:43MIACam Ward 8 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)9–46
• Q3 7:29FLORMichael Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 9–39
• Q3 9:14MIADamien Martinez 33 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)6–39
• Q3 12:33MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 4 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)6–32
• Q2 0:00FLORCameron Gillis 36 Yd Field Goal 6–25
• Q2 5:43MIAAndres Borregales 37 Yd Field Goal 3–25
• Q2 12:58MIAChris Johnson Jr. 9 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)3–22
• Q1 0:49FLORCameron Gillis 22 Yd Field Goal 3–15
• Q1 6:40MIAXavier Restrepo 50 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Riley Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 13:40MIAElijah Arroyo 17 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MIA −46.5

Against the number

MIA covered

line MIA −46.5

What the numbers say

• FLOR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 27% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MIA 100%50%FLOR 100%

Kickoff158 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MIA (top)FLOR (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MIA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MIA −46.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

—

Actual result

FLOR 9 – 56 MIA

Leaders

Florida A&M

• PassDaniel Richardson 13/17, 131 YDS, 1 INT
• RushDorian Collier 5 CAR, 31 YDS
• RecJamari Gassett 5 REC, 57 YDS

Miami

• PassCam Ward 20/26, 304 YDS, 3 TD
• RushDamien Martinez 11 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
• RecXavier Restrepo 4 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MIA up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 311 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MIA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Washington vs Cal Poly48-16WWest Virginia vs BYU37-7WFurman vs VMI37-3WUNLV vs Utah Tech72-14WMurray State vs Mississippi Valley State59-8

Fourth downs

16 calls

MIA gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.FLOR 10/11 · MIA 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Florida A&M vs. Miami?

Florida A&M 9, Miami 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

FLOR

MIA

27%

Success rate

57%

-0.13

EPA / pass

0.32

0.12

EPA / rush

0.53

29%

Early-down success

57%

23%

Pass success

46%

35%

Rush success

66%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

40%

Stuffed rush rate

5%

64%

Pass rate

47%

8.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.8

FLOR

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

MIA

6.8 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

FLOR		MIA
190	Total yards	549
138	Passing yards	324
52	Rushing yards	225
13	First downs	31
3-13	3rd down	8-12
0-0	4th down	0-2
15/28	Comp/Att	26/33
4.9	Yards per pass	9.8
2.1	Yards per rush	5.9
3	Turnovers	0
6-45	Penalties	8-58
25:22	Possession	34:38

Fourth downs

16 calls

FLOR

10/11 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

MIA

3/4 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 2:15 MIA go for it on 4th & 4 at FLOR 14. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.28 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

FLOR 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MIA 9/12 scoring drives

FLORINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD2 pl, 28 yds· opp 28Q1

FLORPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD7 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q1

FLORFG9 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1

MIATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

FLORPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

MIAFG9 pl, 44 yds· own 37Q2

FLORPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 12Q2

MIADOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 20Q2

FLORFG10 pl, 67 yds· own 14Q2

MIATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

FLORPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q3

MIATD3 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

FLORFG5 pl, 43 yds· own 25Q3

MIATD8 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

FLORPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 18Q3

MIATD6 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q3

FLORINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4

MIADOWNS4 pl, -4 yds· opp 32Q4

FLORPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 36Q4

MIAFG14 pl, 58 yds· own 21Q4

FLORINT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4

MIAEND1 pl, 7 yds· opp 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:00MIAAbram Murray 38 Yd Field Goal 9–56
• Q4 14:23MIAJordan Lyle 1 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)9–53
• Q3 3:43MIACam Ward 8 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)9–46
• Q3 7:29FLORMichael Smith 49 Yd Field Goal 9–39
• Q3 9:14MIADamien Martinez 33 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)6–39
• Q3 12:33MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 4 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)6–32
• Q2 0:00FLORCameron Gillis 36 Yd Field Goal 6–25
• Q2 5:43MIAAndres Borregales 37 Yd Field Goal 3–25
• Q2 12:58MIAChris Johnson Jr. 9 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)3–22
• Q1 0:49FLORCameron Gillis 22 Yd Field Goal 3–15
• Q1 6:40MIAXavier Restrepo 50 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Riley Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 13:40MIAElijah Arroyo 17 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →