Samford vs. Western Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Samford
Western Carolina0-1
▸Final
E. J. Whitmire StadiumConference game
SAMFTeam statsWEST
361Total yards546
315Pass262
46Rush284
15First downs34
6-133rd down7-13
1Turnovers0
18:51Possession41:09
- Q4 8:02WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)7–30
- Q3 4:29WESTRichard McCollum 18 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 1:38WESTRichard McCollum 23 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 13:42WESTCensere Lee 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:21WESTAJ Colombo 21 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:03SAMFMichael Vice 8 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–0
What the numbers say
- SAMF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WEST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 3.9
Kickoff120 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WEST (top)SAMF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WEST 100%
Samford
- PassMichael Hiers 21/34, 315 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJay Stanton 7 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecTy King 3 REC, 96 YDS
Western Carolina
- PassCole Gonzales 29/35, 262 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDesmond Reid 27 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAJ Colombo 5 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
109
Points / snap
0.34
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWEST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,178 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
WEST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Samford vs. Western Carolina?
Samford 7, Western Carolina 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WEST) was correct.
SAMF
WEST
46%
Success rate
64%
0.19
EPA / pass
0.48
0.07
EPA / rush
0.17
48%
Early-down success
66%
43%
Pass success
61%
56%
Rush success
67%
21%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
11%
Stuffed rush rate
14%
77%
Pass rate
40%
7.6
Avg 3rd-down distance
3.9
SAMF
7.6 yards to go on 3rd down
39 scrimmage snaps
WEST
3.9 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
| SAMF | WEST | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 546 |
| 315 | Passing yards | 262 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 284 |
| 15 | First downs | 34 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 29/35 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-55 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 18:51 | Possession | 41:09 |
SAMF
4/6 with the model
−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
WEST
3/6 with the model
−4.0 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 4:29 WEST field goal on 4th & 1 at SAMF 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSAMF 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WEST 5/10 scoring drives
WESTTD10 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
WESTDOWNS14 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1
SAMFTD7 pl, 97 yds· own 3Q1
WESTTD10 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
SAMFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 49Q2
SAMFFUM8 pl, 20 yds· own 15Q2
SAMFDOWNS5 pl, 72 yds· own 3Q2
WESTFG15 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q2
SAMFDOWNS10 pl, 27 yds· own 17Q2
WESTFG2 pl, 20 yds· opp 44Q2
SAMFPUNT11 pl, 30 yds· own 16Q3
WESTFG13 pl, 84 yds· own 15Q3
SAMFPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 14Q3
WESTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 39Q3
SAMFPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 19Q3
WESTTD10 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
SAMFDOWNS7 pl, 44 yds· own 22Q4
WESTUncateg9 pl, 55 yds· own 34Q4
- Q4 8:02WESTDesmond Reid 2 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)7–30
- Q3 4:29WESTRichard McCollum 18 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:00WESTRichard McCollum 41 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 1:38WESTRichard McCollum 23 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 13:42WESTCensere Lee 6 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:21WESTAJ Colombo 21 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:03SAMFMichael Vice 8 Yd pass from Michael Hiers (Wilson Beaverstock Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →