Lehigh vs. Monmouth: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Lehigh1-3
Monmouth0-1
▸Final
Kessler Stadium
LEHITeam statsMONM
281Total yards619
163Pass388
118Rush231
15First downs27
2-133rd down8-15
3Turnovers0
27:26Possession32:34
- Q3 4:32MONMGavin Nelson 29 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–49
- Q3 8:35MONMSone Ntoh 92 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–42
- Q3 10:37MONMDymere Miller 36 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:12MONMDre Tucker 34 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:55MONMDeuce Lee 36 Yd Interception Return (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:13MONMDymere Miller 10 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–14
- Q2 8:56LEHIBrayten Silbor 1 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:24MONMSone Ntoh 1 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MONM −15.5
Against the number
MONM covered
line MONM −15.5
What the numbers say
- LEHI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.1
- LEHI lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
Kickoff157 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
MONM (top)LEHI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONM 100%
Closing line
MONM −15.5
Closing total
53.0
Model line
—
Actual result
LEHI 7 – 49 MONM
Lehigh
- PassBrayten Silbor 18/30, 163 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJack DiPietro 11 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecConnor Kennedy 6 REC, 71 YDS
Monmouth
- PassMarquez McCray 22/28, 333 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJaden Shirden 12 CAR, 119 YDS
- RecDymere Miller 8 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
137
Points / snap
0.41
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMONM up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 168 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
MONM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Lehigh vs. Monmouth?
Lehigh 7, Monmouth 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MONM) was correct.
LEHI
MONM
32%
Success rate
48%
-0.12
EPA / pass
0.58
-0.24
EPA / rush
0.32
33%
Early-down success
48%
36%
Pass success
54%
27%
Rush success
41%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
18%
55%
Pass rate
52%
9.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.1
LEHI
9.3 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
MONM
6.1 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
| LEHI | MONM | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 619 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 388 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 231 |
| 15 | First downs | 27 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 28/35 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-81 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 27:26 | Possession | 32:34 |
LEHI
7/10 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
MONM
5/5 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 11:49 LEHI punt on 4th & 13 at MONM 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishLEHI 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MONM 6/12 scoring drives
LEHIPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 35Q1
MONMTD9 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q1
LEHIPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 44Q1
MONMMISS10 pl, 82 yds· own 11Q1
LEHITD15 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
MONMTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2
LEHITD1 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q2
LEHIPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2
MONMTD10 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q2
LEHIEND1 pl, 13 yds· own 29Q2
MONMTD9 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 28Q3
MONMTD1 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q3
LEHIPUNT5 pl, 32 yds· own 21Q3
MONMTD5 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
LEHIPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
MONMPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 11Q3
LEHIFUM5 pl, 71 yds· own 22Q4
MONMPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 7Q4
LEHIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 47Q4
MONMPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 5Q4
LEHIPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 46Q4
MONMPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 15Q4
MONMDOWNS5 pl, 24 yds· own 49Q4
LEHIEND1 pl, 7 yds· own 27Q4
- Q3 4:32MONMGavin Nelson 29 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–49
- Q3 8:35MONMSone Ntoh 92 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–42
- Q3 10:37MONMDymere Miller 36 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–35
- Q2 0:12MONMDre Tucker 34 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:55MONMDeuce Lee 36 Yd Interception Return (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–21
- Q2 6:13MONMDymere Miller 10 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–14
- Q2 8:56LEHIBrayten Silbor 1 Yd Run (Nick Garrido Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:24MONMSone Ntoh 1 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →