Incarnate Word vs. Abilene Christian: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Incarnate Word0-1

▸0027

Abilene Christian

0020

Final

Wildcat Stadium (TX)

	1	2	3	4	T
INCA	0	10	0	17	27
ABIL	0	10	0	10	20

INCATeam statsABIL

517Total yards320

373Pass189

144Rush131

20First downs19

5-143rd down5-14

1Turnovers1

28:01Possession31:59

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:45ABILKyle Ramsey 44 Yd Field Goal 27–20
• Q4 5:18INCAMason Lawler 27 Yd Field Goal 27–17
• Q4 8:26ABILJay'Veon Sunday 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)24–17
• Q4 10:06INCAZach Calzada 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)24–10
• Q4 14:50INCABrandon Porter 23 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)17–10
• Q2 0:00INCAMason Lawler 43 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q2 0:31ABILKyle Ramsey 51 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q2 3:29INCAZach Calzada 52 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)7–7
• Q2 4:16ABILJermiah Dobbins 29 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• ABIL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and INCA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ABIL 100%50%INCA 100%

Kickoff130 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ABIL (top)INCA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ABIL 0%

Leaders

Incarnate Word

• PassZach Calzada 23/36, 373 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushZach Calzada 7 CAR, 66 YDS, 2 TD
• RecBrandon Porter 10 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD

Abilene Christian

• PassMaverick McIvor 15/32, 189 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJermiah Dobbins 21 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCooper McCasland 4 REC, 64 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

115

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

ABIL win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27LArkansas vs BYU31-38WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28LMiddle Tennessee vs Colorado State23-31

Fourth downs

15 calls

INCA gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.INCA 5/6 · ABIL 8/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Incarnate Word vs. Abilene Christian?

Incarnate Word 27, Abilene Christian 20.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked ABIL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

INCA

ABIL

41%

Success rate

34%

0.32

EPA / pass

-0.12

0.26

EPA / rush

-0.13

41%

Early-down success

35%

41%

Pass success

33%

40%

Rush success

34%

19%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

7%

20%

Stuffed rush rate

34%

66%

Pass rate

38%

5.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.9

INCA

5.4 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

ABIL

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

INCA		ABIL
517	Total yards	320
373	Passing yards	189
144	Rushing yards	131
20	First downs	19
5-14	3rd down	5-14
1-2	4th down	0-1
23/36	Comp/Att	15/32
10.4	Yards per pass	5.9
4.6	Yards per rush	3.7
1	Turnovers	1
9-76	Penalties	5-50
28:01	Possession	31:59

Fourth downs

15 calls

INCA

5/6 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

ABIL

8/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 4:33 INCA punt on 4th & 1 at INCA 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

INCA 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ABIL 2/10 scoring drives

ABILDOWNS15 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1

INCAPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 3Q1

ABILPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 47Q1

INCAPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 18Q1

ABILPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 18Q1

INCADOWNS5 pl, 19 yds· own 39Q2

ABILINT4 pl, 11 yds· own 37Q2

INCAINT7 pl, 56 yds· own 30Q2

ABILTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

INCATD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

ABILFG5 pl, 39 yds· own 27Q2

INCAFG3 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q2

INCAPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3

ABILPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q3

INCAPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 12Q3

ABILPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 48Q3

INCAPUNT7 pl, 35 yds· own 20Q3

ABILPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 6Q3

INCATD5 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

ABILPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

INCATD8 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:45ABILKyle Ramsey 44 Yd Field Goal 27–20
• Q4 5:18INCAMason Lawler 27 Yd Field Goal 27–17
• Q4 8:26ABILJay'Veon Sunday 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)24–17
• Q4 10:06INCAZach Calzada 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)24–10
• Q4 14:50INCABrandon Porter 23 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)17–10
• Q2 0:00INCAMason Lawler 43 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q2 0:31ABILKyle Ramsey 51 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q2 3:29INCAZach Calzada 52 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)7–7
• Q2 4:16ABILJermiah Dobbins 29 Yd Run (Kyle Ramsey Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →