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Air Force

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Mountain West · 14-18 · AdjEM +1.8, 150 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
+1.8150 of 363
AdjO
103.7135 of 363
AdjD
101.8166 of 363
AdjT
64.7354 of 363

Air Force went from -5.3 (#246) on 2022-11-06 to +1.8 (#150) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +3.1 (#138) on 2023-01-16.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 32 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
54.2%28
TOV%
17.0%186
OREB%
20.1%337
FTA/FGA
31.2%186
Opp eFG%
49.3%114
Opp TOV%
16.3%224
DREB%
73.0%203
Opp FTA/FGA
35.2%277

Résumé14-18 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
+2.2117 of 363
Non-conference
-8.2357 of 363
Luck
-7.1%318 of 363
Wins above bubble
-9.9206 of 363
Quad 1
0-5
Quad 2
2-6
Quad 3
3-4
Quad 4
9-3

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players18 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Jake HeidbrederG3232.515.13.31.759.7%63.0%24.4%39.9%86.7%
Ethan TaylorG3129.97.13.33.151.0%52.1%17.0%38.4%61.1%
Rytis PetraitisF3226.610.46.22.752.4%58.1%23.0%32.7%70.2%
Camden Vander ZwaagG3221.27.22.21.561.2%64.1%17.4%41.6%90.6%
Jeffrey MillsG2823.24.72.12.649.1%51.3%14.2%30.2%65.5%
Beau BeckerF2721.17.43.41.050.5%51.3%21.4%33.7%60.0%
Carter MurphyG3117.67.21.71.154.6%57.9%24.5%28.1%82.9%
Corbin GreenF2419.36.52.81.554.8%56.6%21.7%29.2%62.0%
Marcell McCrearyG2914.73.81.80.653.7%56.9%16.5%34.1%72.4%
Nikc JacksonF1114.73.03.50.844.0%48.5%16.5%0.0%57.9%
Lucas MoermanC420.03.04.51.842.9%42.9%10.9%28.6%—
Jake MurphyG93.30.20.10.210.0%10.0%25.2%0.0%—
Chase BeasleyG92.30.80.80.1100.0%88.6%13.7%—50.0%
Byron BrownG72.40.10.10.10.0%12.8%16.8%0.0%25.0%
Kellan BoylanF61.30.00.00.00.0%0.0%7.3%——
Kaleb LichauF12.00.01.00.00.0%0.0%29.1%0.0%—
Wyatt BellG21.00.00.00.0——0.0%——
Solo JonesF11.00.00.00.0——0.0%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games14-18

“Ours” is our projected margin for Air Force, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07@Bowling GreenQ4#292L 58-62-0.8
11-11vsDelawareQ4#213W 75-71-0.5
11-14vsEast Texas A&MQ4#310L 69-73+5.9
11-17vsPortlandQ3#148L 51-64-2.0
11-21vsSouth Carolina UpstateQ4#254W 83-56+7.0
11-23vsMississippi Valley StateQ4#359W 64-51+16.3
11-27vsMontanaQ4#183W 59-56+4.8
11-30vsArkansas-Pine BluffQ4#339W 81-53+10.2
12-03@Portland StateQ4#260L 64-68-6.7
12-06vsSouth DakotaQ4#311W 79-58+9.3
12-09vsArkansas StateQ4#285W 80-55+6.5
12-18vsTarleton StateQ4#177W 81-67+5.3
12-20@Northern ColoradoQ4#252W 67-65+0.5
12-28@San Diego StateQ1#16L 55-71-13.1
12-31vsNevadaQ2#74L 69-75-0.1
01-03vsUtah StateQ1#24L 65-77-6.8
01-10@Colorado StateQ2#101W 85-74-7.6
01-14@Fresno StateQ2#132W 51-48-4.8
01-17vsWyomingQ3#156W 82-74+5.1
01-21vsSan Diego StateQ1#16L 60-70-4.6
01-24@San José StateQ2#118L 52-82-2.5
01-27@New MexicoQ2#80L 73-81-10.0
01-31vsBoise StateQ2#33L 52-59-7.7
02-03@NevadaQ1#74L 52-72-10.6
02-07vsColorado StateQ3#101L 53-69+1.4
02-10vsNew MexicoQ3#80W 89-77-3.4
02-14@Utah StateQ1#24L 65-80-13.1
02-17@WyomingQ3#156W 75-69-3.0
02-21vsFresno StateQ3#132L 69-74+3.4
02-24@UNLVQ2#95L 53-54-7.6
03-04vsSan José StateQ3#118L 61-63+2.7
03-08nUNLVQ2#95L 70-78-3.6

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.