College Basketball Bubble Watch

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Which 68 teams a résumé-based selection would take today, who is last in, and who is first out.

2025-26 seasonthrough ratings as of 2026-03-16most recent completed season

Shown as it stood before the tournament began, from the ratings of 2026-03-16.

The last four in are Miami (OH), VCU, Oklahoma and Texas; the first four out are NC State, Seton Hall, Indiana and California. Texas holds the final place by 0.1 wins above bubble over NC State.

Last four inthe at-large bids with the least to spare

Team	Conf	Bid	W-L	WAB	Q1	Q2	Rating
Miami (OH)	MAC	at large · First Four	28-1	+1.1	0-0	0-0	103
VCU	A-10	at large · First Four	27-7	+1.1	1-4	5-3	44
Oklahoma	SEC	at large · First Four	19-14	+0.9	6-10	6-4	36
Texas	SEC	at large · First Four	17-14	+0.5	6-9	3-4	34

First four out

Team	Conf	Bid	W-L	WAB	Q1	Q2	Rating
NC State	ACC	out	20-13	+0.4	5-8	7-4	37
Seton Hall	Big East	out	21-12	+0.1	3-7	8-3	56
Indiana	Big Ten	out	18-14	-0.1	3-12	5-2	39
California	ACC	out	20-10	-0.3	4-6	2-4	68

Next four out

Team	Conf	Bid	W-L	WAB	Q1	Q2	Rating
San Diego State	Mountain West	out	21-11	-0.4	1-8	8-2	49
SMU	ACC	out	20-13	-0.5	4-9	5-4	38
Oklahoma State	Big 12	out	19-14	-0.6	3-12	7-2	85
Arizona State	Big 12	out	17-16	-0.8	6-12	3-3	73

The projected field31 automatic bids · 37 at large

Seed	Team	Conf	Bid	W-L	WAB	Q1	Q2	Rating
1	Michigan	Big Ten	automatic	31-3	+14.4	17-3	8-0	2
1	Arizona	Big 12	automatic	32-2	+14.1	18-2	5-0	3
1	Duke	ACC	automatic	32-2	+13.8	17-2	6-0	1
1	Purdue	Big Ten	at large	27-8	+9.7	12-8	7-0	7
2	Florida	SEC	automatic	26-7	+9.6	13-7	6-0	4
2	UConn	Big East	automatic	29-5	+9.6	9-4	11-1	10
2	Houston	Big 12	at large	28-6	+9.3	9-6	11-0	5
2	Arkansas	SEC	at large	26-8	+8.5	11-8	6-0	19
3	Vanderbilt	SEC	at large	26-8	+8.4	11-7	8-1	14
3	Nebraska	Big Ten	at large	26-6	+7.8	11-6	5-0	17
3	St. John's	Big East	at large	28-6	+7.8	8-5	11-1	16
3	Michigan State	Big Ten	at large	25-7	+7.8	10-7	6-0	13
4	Alabama	SEC	at large	23-9	+7.7	10-7	7-2	12
4	Iowa State	Big 12	at large	27-7	+7.6	7-7	12-0	8
4	Virginia	ACC	at large	29-5	+7.6	8-4	9-1	21
4	Illinois	Big Ten	at large	24-8	+6.9	8-8	7-0	6
5	Kansas	Big 12	at large	23-10	+6.6	9-9	7-1	20
5	Gonzaga	WCC	automatic	30-3	+6.6	7-2	7-0	9
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	at large	24-10	+5.9	11-8	5-2	26
5	Tennessee	SEC	at large	22-10	+5.8	7-10	7-0	11
6	Texas Tech	Big 12	at large	22-10	+5.4	8-9	4-1	15
6	North Carolina	ACC	at large	24-8	+4.9	6-8	5-0	27
6	Kentucky	SEC	at large	21-13	+4.4	6-11	7-2	22
6	Louisville	ACC	at large	23-10	+4.1	8-10	4-0	18
7	Villanova	Big East	at large	24-8	+4.1	5-6	7-2	35
7	BYU	Big 12	at large	22-11	+3.9	7-9	7-2	23
7	UCLA	Big Ten	at large	23-11	+3.8	6-9	6-2	29
7	Miami	ACC	at large	25-8	+3.6	7-6	5-2	46
8	Clemson	ACC	at large	24-10	+3.3	6-6	7-4	33
8	Georgia	SEC	at large	22-10	+3.2	8-7	4-3	31
8	Ohio State	Big Ten	at large	21-12	+3.1	5-11	8-1	28
8	Utah State	Mountain West	automatic	27-6	+3.1	4-3	9-2	32
9	Saint Mary's	WCC	at large	26-5	+2.9	1-4	8-1	24
9	TCU	Big 12	at large	22-11	+2.4	5-8	8-1	45
9	Texas A&M	SEC	at large	21-11	+2.2	6-7	5-4	40
9	UCF	Big 12	at large	21-11	+2.1	6-7	6-3	59
10	Iowa	Big Ten	at large	21-12	+2.0	5-10	5-2	25
10	Missouri	SEC	at large	20-12	+1.9	6-9	4-3	51
10	Santa Clara	WCC	at large	25-8	+1.6	2-6	5-1	47
10	Auburn	SEC	at large	17-16	+1.1	5-13	5-3	30
11	Miami (OH)	MAC	at large · First Four	28-1	+1.1	0-0	0-0	103
11	VCU	A-10	at large · First Four	27-7	+1.1	1-4	5-3	44
11	Oklahoma	SEC	at large · First Four	19-14	+0.9	6-10	6-4	36
11	Saint Louis	A-10	automatic	27-5	+0.9	2-1	5-3	41
11	Texas	SEC	at large · First Four	17-14	+0.5	6-9	3-4	34
11	McNeese	Southland	automatic	26-5	-0.9	0-2	1-2	80
12	South Florida	American	automatic	24-8	-0.9	1-2	8-4	54
12	Akron	MAC	automatic	25-5	-1.5	0-1	0-2	82
12	High Point	Big South	automatic	27-4	-2.0	0-0	0-1	86
12	Yale	Ivy	automatic	21-6	-2.3	0-1	1-1	70
13	Liberty	CUSA	automatic	22-7	-3.2	1-1	1-0	110
13	Utah Valley	UAC	automatic	22-8	-4.4	0-2	0-1	101
13	Navy	Patriot	automatic	24-7	-4.6	0-1	0-3	137
13	UMBC	Am. East	automatic	22-8	-5.6	0-2	0-2	187
14	Hofstra	CAA	automatic	22-10	-6.0	0-1	2-2	96
14	Northern Iowa	MVC	automatic	22-12	-6.1	0-1	4-5	79
14	St. Thomas-Minnesota	Summit	automatic	21-9	-6.1	0-1	0-2	107
14	Tennessee State	OVC	automatic	20-9	-6.2	0-1	1-1	190
15	Long Island University	NEC	automatic	24-10	-6.5	0-2	0-2	200
15	Howard	MEAC	automatic	19-10	-7.1	0-2	1-2	203
15	Troy	Sun Belt	automatic	20-11	-7.5	1-1	1-0	138
15	UC Irvine	Big West	automatic	21-11	-7.6	0-0	1-2	116
16	East Tennessee State	SoCon	automatic	21-11	-8.1	0-2	0-0	124
16	Wright State	Horizon	automatic	21-11	-8.2	0-1	0-1	156
16	Lipscomb	ASUN	automatic · First Four	17-13	-8.7	0-3	0-1	172
16	Bethune-Cookman	SWAC	automatic · First Four	15-15	-9.4	0-7	0-1	261
16	Montana State	Big Sky	automatic · First Four	15-14	-9.7	0-4	0-0	139
16	Marist	Metro	automatic · First Four	18-12	-10.1	0-0	0-1	178

How this is measured

Each conference's automatic bid goes to its highest-rated team. That is a stand-in for a conference tournament that has not been played, not a forecast of one: a one-bid league's champion is often not its best team.

The remaining places go to the teams with the most wins above bubble: wins minus what the 45th-ranked team would be expected to win against the same opponents at the same sites. Seed lines are that same order cut into fours, with the last four at large and the four lowest automatic bids paired into the First Four.

This reads one number where the selection committee reads many, so it will differ from the committee's field. Quadrant records use the committee's boundaries on this site's ranking, not the NCAA's NET.