Air Force

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Mountain West · 4-28 · AdjEM -10.8, 282 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →

AdjEM: -10.8282 of 364
AdjO: 98.5284 of 364
AdjD: 109.4264 of 364
AdjT: 66.0348 of 364

Air Force went from -3.0 (#191) on 2024-11-03 to -10.8 (#282) on 2025-04-07, peaking at -3.0 (#191) on 2024-11-03.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 32 complete games

Leaderboards →

eFG%: 50.1%220
TOV%: 18.6%335
OREB%: 19.9%345
FTA/FGA: 35.4%108
Opp eFG%: 54.6%334
Opp TOV%: 14.7%275
DREB%: 72.6%165
Opp FTA/FGA: 35.4%242

Résumé4-28 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength: +4.897 of 364
Non-conference: -4.8327 of 364
Luck: -9.8%341 of 364
Wins above bubble: -20.0338 of 364

Quad 1: 0-6
Quad 2: 0-10
Quad 3: 1-7
Quad 4: 3-5

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players17 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →

Player	G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	USG%	3P%	FT%
Ethan TaylorG	32	36.5	13.9	5.4	3.5	51.6%	54.1%	23.5%	38.4%	79.4%
Jeffrey MillsG	32	29.5	5.5	3.2	2.4	48.2%	48.6%	13.0%	31.4%	50.0%
Luke KearneyF	32	26.6	8.9	2.7	0.9	49.8%	53.7%	20.3%	32.7%	83.9%
Kyle MarshallG	30	25.8	6.9	4.1	1.7	48.1%	52.2%	19.3%	35.3%	64.0%
Wesley CelichowskiC	32	20.3	8.7	2.1	1.0	54.7%	57.2%	24.2%	28.8%	63.6%
Caleb WalkerF	32	16.4	6.5	3.1	1.3	55.6%	53.9%	26.0%	40.0%	45.3%
Byron BrownG	31	15.4	2.5	1.7	1.2	44.4%	45.5%	13.4%	14.3%	46.5%
Will CooperF	21	15.2	5.3	1.8	0.4	57.3%	60.6%	20.9%	37.7%	81.8%
Sam DuskinG	19	10.4	2.0	1.3	0.4	45.0%	44.8%	14.1%	24.2%	40.0%
Sam SpringerF	18	7.9	3.1	0.8	0.1	43.0%	51.0%	23.9%	28.0%	78.3%
Beau BeckerF	18	7.2	2.4	0.7	0.6	34.6%	37.6%	28.6%	25.6%	63.6%
Chase BeasleyG	6	19.5	3.3	4.2	1.8	50.0%	52.9%	13.5%	25.0%	75.0%
Yoda OkeG	13	7.9	2.3	2.5	0.5	44.2%	45.9%	21.3%	23.1%	50.0%
A.J. PattersonG	10	5.1	0.7	0.6	0.3	28.6%	39.3%	17.7%	0.0%	75.0%
Josh GateteF	3	1.7	0.0	1.3	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	45.3%	0.0%	—
Sam AkinrelereG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0%	—	—
Eli RobinsonF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0%	—	—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games4-28

“Ours” is our projected margin for Air Force, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

Date	Opponent	Quad	Result	Ours	Pace	Snapshot
11-04	vsNorth Alabama	Q3#132	L 57-73	+5.5	68	11-03
11-07	vsJacksonville State	Q3#134	W 73-67	+2.0	67	11-04
11-11	vsLong Island University	Q4#295	L 54-63	+13.1	69	11-04
11-15	vsBelmont	Q3#125	L 71-79	-4.8	68	11-11
11-21	@California	Q2#114	L 69-78	-14.3	68	11-18
11-24	vsMercyhurst	Q4#330	W 82-48	+3.5	66	11-18
11-27	vsSacramento State	Q4#341	L 61-63	+6.5	66	11-25
11-30	@Wright State	Q3#206	L 57-70	-8.3	68	11-25
12-02	@Miami (OH)	Q3#168	L 60-73	-3.0	67	11-25
12-07	nStony Brook	Q4#331	W 69-61	+6.3	67	12-02
12-16	@Northern Colorado	Q2#133	L 76-81	-6.9	69	12-09
12-21	@Boise State	Q1#41	L 59-77	-20.0	67	12-16
12-31	vsUNLV	Q3#93	L 58-77	-5.8	66	12-30
01-04	vsWyoming	Q4#180	L 65-70	-1.4	66	12-30
01-08	@San Diego State	Q1#56	L 38-67	-22.2	67	01-06
01-11	vsSan José State	Q4#167	L 62-69	+0.7	67	01-06
01-14	@Nevada	Q1#67	L 62-68	-19.4	66	01-13
01-17	@Fresno State	Q4#257	L 65-74	-3.5	70	01-13
01-22	vsSan Diego State	Q2#56	L 76-77	-15.0	67	01-20
01-25	vsUtah State	Q2#50	L 58-87	-13.4	69	01-20
01-28	@Colorado State	Q1#44	L 58-79	-16.6	67	01-27
02-01	@San José State	Q3#167	L 64-75	-7.4	67	01-27
02-04	vsNevada	Q2#67	L 60-74	-11.7	66	02-03
02-08	vsNew Mexico	Q2#47	L 53-88	-14.8	71	02-03
02-11	@UNLV	Q2#93	L 52-77	-14.6	67	02-10
02-18	@Wyoming	Q3#180	L 62-69	-9.2	66	02-17
02-22	vsFresno State	Q4#257	W 72-69	+2.0	70	02-17
02-25	vsColorado State	Q2#44	L 55-77	-13.1	67	02-24
03-01	@New Mexico	Q1#47	L 71-92	-22.6	71	02-24
03-04	vsBoise State	Q2#41	L 57-80	-16.1	67	03-03
03-08	@Utah State	Q1#50	L 47-87	-21.6	68	03-03
03-12	nUNLV	Q2#93	L 59-68	-13.3	67	03-10

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.