MLB

• ALDS 'A' Game 1Yankees0Rays0Top 2nd
• ALDS 'B' Game 1White Sox3Guardians0Final
• NLDS 'B' Game 1Braves3Dodgers5Final
• NLDS 'A' Game 1Padres41%Brewers59%8:30 PM

Percentages beside an unplayed game come from the two teams' run differentials and home field only — they do not see starting pitchers or lineups. The game page has the full simulation. How it works

The Dodgers win the World Series in 25% of 20,000 simulations, just ahead of the Brewers (22%). Even the favourite misses the World Series in 59% of runs; 7 of the 12 teams in the field are under 10% to win it.

20,000 simulations of the bracket from run differential and home field — not the in-game model.

Seed	Team	Pennant	World Series
NL 2	Dodgers	41%	25%
NL 1	Brewers	34%	22%
AL 4	Yankees	32%	15%
AL 6	White Sox	31%	12%
AL 1	Rays	25%	10%
NL 3	Braves	12%	7%
NL 4	Padres	13%	6%
AL 2	Guardians	11%	4%
AL 3	Astros	0%	0%
AL 5	Red Sox	0%	0%
NL 5	Cubs	0%	0%
NL 6	Phillies	0%	0%

The Dodgers and the Brewers are top five in baseball at both scoring and preventing runs.

Every club's runs scored and allowed per game. Top right is best at both; the axis for runs allowed is flipped so fewer is higher. Raw totals — not adjusted for park or schedule.