Skip to content

Air Force

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Mountain West · 11-18 · AdjEM -7.3, 274 of 359 nationally.

2021-22 seasonthrough ratings as of 2022-04-0421 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2022-04-04

Every team →
AdjEM
-7.3274 of 359
AdjO
95.7289 of 359
AdjD
102.9238 of 359
AdjT
63.9353 of 359

Air Force went from +2.0 (#111) on 2021-11-15 to -7.3 (#274) on 2022-04-04, peaking at +3.1 (#104) on 2021-11-22.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2021-11-152022-04-04

Four factorsraw season rates · 29 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
50.9%131
TOV%
18.6%270
OREB%
17.2%353
FTA/FGA
26.8%277
Opp eFG%
51.5%244
Opp TOV%
19.6%44
DREB%
71.2%278
Opp FTA/FGA
38.9%334

Résumé11-18 · against the ratings of 2022-04-04

Schedule strength
+1.1132 of 359
Non-conference
-6.7355 of 359
Luck
+5.5%65 of 359
Wins above bubble
-9.6231 of 359
Quad 1
0-5
Quad 2
1-6
Quad 3
2-5
Quad 4
8-2

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Jake HeidbrederG2934.110.43.21.960.1%62.9%16.6%37.9%79.7%
Ethan TaylorG2834.98.64.83.747.2%50.0%20.0%32.0%69.8%
A.J. WalkerG2832.914.22.41.552.8%55.4%26.0%35.8%74.4%
Nikc JacksonF2919.25.83.61.449.2%52.3%21.8%28.6%60.0%
Lucas MoermanC2720.04.13.90.649.0%48.1%16.0%32.6%38.5%
Camden Vander ZwaagG2918.44.71.50.952.1%53.5%16.3%35.3%70.6%
Joe OctaveG2520.08.33.00.850.6%51.9%27.2%37.0%59.6%
Jeffrey MillsG2717.12.91.11.542.7%42.8%15.4%17.6%42.1%
Carter MurphyG1812.53.31.60.550.0%50.5%17.5%28.6%66.7%
Ryan CornerC84.60.31.50.60.0%11.9%16.6%0.0%40.0%
Kyle BrownG92.40.20.10.112.5%12.5%29.6%0.0%—
Abe KinradeF82.30.00.40.00.0%0.0%19.7%0.0%—
Byron BrownG33.31.00.00.0100.0%61.9%14.4%—33.3%
Jake MurphyG41.50.80.30.375.0%75.0%19.7%100.0%—
Ezra MckennaF11.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%59.2%0.0%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games11-18

“Ours” is our projected margin for Air Force, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-11@South DakotaQ3#199L 53-59—
11-13@TulsaQ3#218W 59-58—
11-17vsTexas SouthernQ4#165W 61-57+12.3
11-20nHoly CrossQ4#346W 72-53+3.2
11-21nBethune-CookmanQ4#336W 73-65+6.3
11-24vsDenverQ4#284W 66-65+11.7
11-27vsIdaho StateQ4#338W 59-48+17.4
12-04vsArmyQ4#279W 76-58+8.5
12-08@MontanaQ4#250L 48-66-3.0
12-19@Arkansas StateQ3#187L 46-68-4.2
12-21@Tarleton StateQ3#191L 45-67-6.9
12-29vsUtah StateQ2#62W 49-47-2.6
01-04@Colorado StateQ1#40L 59-67-15.4
01-15vsNevadaQ3#152L 68-75+3.5
01-18@Boise StateQ1#38L 56-62-13.2
01-20vsUNLVQ3#105W 69-62+2.4
01-22vsColorado StateQ2#40L 53-73-4.2
01-25@San José StateQ4#317W 63-53-0.3
01-28vsWyomingQ2#66L 61-63-5.1
02-01@Utah StateQ1#62L 46-73-12.1
02-05vsNew MexicoQ4#194L 77-91+4.7
02-08@UNLVQ2#105L 44-78-6.8
02-12@San Diego StateQ1#36L 64-76-11.2
02-16vsBoise StateQ2#38L 59-85-6.5
02-19@WyomingQ1#66L 67-75-14.7
02-22vsFresno StateQ2#63L 40-65-6.0
02-26@New MexicoQ3#194L 65-69-6.5
03-01vsSan José StateQ4#317W 58-54+6.3
03-09nUtah StateQ2#62L 56-83-11.2

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 359 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.