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Air Force

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Mountain West · 9-22 · AdjEM -4.4, 217 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →
AdjEM
-4.4217 of 362
AdjO
104.9158 of 362
AdjD
109.2289 of 362
AdjT
63.7360 of 362

Air Force went from +1.2 (#155) on 2023-11-05 to -4.4 (#217) on 2024-04-08, peaking at +2.1 (#149) on 2023-12-04.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 31 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
53.8%46
TOV%
17.0%254
OREB%
22.8%299
FTA/FGA
29.6%267
Opp eFG%
54.2%337
Opp TOV%
16.9%103
DREB%
70.4%299
Opp FTA/FGA
39.1%311

Résumé9-22 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength
+2.5116 of 362
Non-conference
-10.3362 of 362
Luck
-8.9%344 of 362
Wins above bubble
-14.1284 of 362
Quad 1
2-6
Quad 2
0-5
Quad 3
0-7
Quad 4
7-4

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players14 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Ethan TaylorG3136.813.54.02.749.1%51.9%23.4%35.7%81.5%
Kellan BoylanF3032.07.25.02.157.3%61.1%14.0%41.9%73.2%
Jeffrey MillsG2833.79.12.63.057.9%58.0%15.5%38.8%56.4%
Beau BeckerF3130.013.84.41.559.4%60.0%24.1%39.6%71.0%
Rytis PetraitisF2432.815.76.33.752.7%56.3%28.9%34.9%65.8%
Byron BrownG3120.25.11.91.056.3%58.6%15.6%32.4%66.0%
Chase BeasleyG2612.41.81.51.040.0%45.6%14.8%15.4%63.6%
Luke KearneyF2110.23.90.90.347.9%51.2%24.2%29.8%84.6%
Corbin GreenF1211.82.72.81.140.7%47.5%17.5%0.0%71.4%
Kolby GillesF165.41.10.70.343.3%43.5%20.0%25.0%41.7%
Wesley CelichowskiC108.11.90.80.459.4%54.5%13.1%16.7%0.0%
Brady RugglesG101.50.20.10.1—70.2%9.3%—66.7%
Wyatt BoekerF11.00.00.01.0——0.0%——
Caleb WalkerF11.00.00.00.0——0.0%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games9-22

“Ours” is our projected margin for Air Force, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06vsPortland StateQ4#252L 55-62+8.4
11-10@Long Island UniversityQ4#353W 82-67+11.9
11-12@DelawareQ3#174L 57-65-5.1
11-16vsLindenwoodQ4#358W 76-58+16.1
11-17vsWilliam & MaryQ4#324W 80-71+7.6
11-19vsOmahaQ4#270W 58-56+9.1
11-22vsVMIQ4#357W 64-54+12.8
11-26@South DakotaQ4#322W 58-57+2.5
12-03@PortlandQ4#288W 80-58-1.7
12-09vsEastern WashingtonQ3#150L 68-73+8.2
12-16nUT ArlingtonQ3#133L 73-76+1.2
12-21vsNorthern ColoradoQ4#204L 79-83+10.2
01-02vsUtah StateQ2#50L 60-88-7.6
01-09@NevadaQ1#38L 54-67-16.9
01-13vsSan José StateQ4#215L 67-70+1.4
01-16@Colorado StateQ1#47L 69-78-16.3
01-20vsNew MexicoQ2#31L 66-85-8.9
01-23@UNLVQ1#74W 90-58-12.6
01-27@Fresno StateQ3#197L 70-84-2.7
01-30vsWyomingQ3#160L 72-83+4.1
02-03@Boise StateQ1#32L 56-94-13.4
02-06vsSan Diego StateQ1#24L 64-77-12.4
02-10vsFresno StateQ4#197L 66-68+2.5
02-13@San José StateQ3#215L 66-73-3.5
02-21vsUNLVQ2#74L 43-72-5.4
02-24@New MexicoQ1#31W 78-77-18.9
02-27vsBoise StateQ2#32L 48-79-11.3
03-01@Utah StateQ1#50L 60-72-17.3
03-05@WyomingQ3#160L 63-74-5.2
03-09vsColorado StateQ2#47L 73-82-10.1
03-13nNew MexicoQ1#31L 56-82-15.0

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.