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The shape of 148,495 decisions
Every fourth down in all 9,471 FBS games, 2015–2025, by what the coach chose.
Puntedand the model agreed 93% of the time71%
Went for itthe model agreed 47% of the time24%
Kickedthe model agreed 75% of the time20%
The model disagreed with 18.7% of them. That disagreement is what this piece is about.
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From The fourth down nobody argues about
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