Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Louisiana Tech gets at Baylor: 49th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 118th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Baylor gets at Louisiana Tech: 46th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 119th at keeping everything in front of them. Baylor is also 25th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 58th.
How
LTattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
LT#49 of 138BAY#118 of 138
HowBAYattacksLT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BAY#46 of 138LT#119 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BAY#25 of 138LT#58 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is in year 5 under Sonny Cumbie, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 20th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 119th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana Tech has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#20projected
- Defensefirst and second down#32projected
- Defenserunning it#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#119projected
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, LT Elo 1454 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -12.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LT8th75thBAYBAY122nd2ndLTThrough the air
LT35th114thBAYBAY20th1stLTOn the ground
LT32nd83rdBAYBAY116th40thLTStaying on the field
LT11th131stBAYBAY112th20thLTTaking care of it
LT1st30thBAYBAY68th88thLT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3 (#76) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| -3 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 12.1.
What time is Louisiana Tech vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →