Baylor vs. Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Baylor gets at Houston: 28th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 81st at shutting down the ground game. Where Houston gets at Baylor: 34th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 85th at generating havoc. Baylor is also 25th on first and second down, against a unit 77th.
How
BAYattacks
HOU
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
BAY#28 of 138HOU#81 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
BAY#25 of 138HOU#77 of 138
HowHOUattacksBAY
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
HOU#34 of 138BAY#85 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
HOU#43 of 138BAY#90 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
HOU#24 of 138BAY#67 of 138
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Houston
Houston runs it: Willie Fritz's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 112th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#10projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#24projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#112projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1514, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -12.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY122nd90thHOUHOU23rd75thBAYThrough the air
BAY20th136thHOUHOU30th114thBAYOn the ground
BAY116th4thHOUHOU34th83rdBAYStaying on the field
BAY112th31stHOUHOU26th131stBAYTaking care of it
BAY68th118thHOUHOU68th30thBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 15–15–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| BAY | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.1 (#33) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#43) |
| +6 / -6 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 12.1.
What time is Baylor vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →