TCU vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Baylor gets at TCU: 19th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 63rd at closing out passing downs. TCU projects no clear way in against Baylor. Baylor is also 46th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 80th.
How
BAYattacks
TCU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 20% this season, 2 games
BAY45%#19 of 138TCU38%#63 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 24% this season, 2 games
BAY19.0%#46 of 138TCU19.5%#80 of 138
The two teams
TCU
TCU throws it: Sonny Dykes's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 21st at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
TCU has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground34%#21 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down58%#26 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.04#26 of 138
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, TCU Elo 1595 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TCU37th22ndBAYBAY107th54thTCUThrough the air
TCU34th43rdBAYBAY15th74thTCUOn the ground
TCU43rd31stBAYBAY70th7thTCUStaying on the field
TCU79th100thBAYBAY68th4thTCUTaking care of it
TCU47th22ndBAYBAY124th22ndTCU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTCU leads 60–50–5 · 43% have been one-possession games
| TCU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1 (#70) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#20) |
| -3 / -3 | offense / defense | +9 / -8 |
| 0.89 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win TCU vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for TCU vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 4.0.
What time is TCU vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →