Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Baylor and Arizona State rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Arizona State
Arizona State is in year 4 under Kenny Dillingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 32nd at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+8.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#32projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#33projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#33projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1519, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -2.7 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY122nd40thASUASU19th75thBAYThrough the air
BAY20th25thASUASU11th114thBAYOn the ground
BAY116th53rdASUASU55th83rdBAYStaying on the field
BAY112th27thASUASU99th131stBAYTaking care of it
BAY68th88thASUASU129th30thBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BAY | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.1 (#33) | CORE overall | +4.4 (#54) |
| +6 / -6 | offense / defense | -0 / -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. Arizona State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. Arizona State?
The model projects Arizona State by 2.7.
What time is Baylor vs. Arizona State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mountain America Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →