Baylor vs. BYU Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where BYU gets at Baylor: 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 100th at stuffing runs at the line. Baylor projects no clear way in against BYU. BYU is also 2nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 48th.
How
BYUattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
BYU7.7%#4 of 138BAY23.5%#100 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
BYU4.7%#2 of 138BAY21.4%#48 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
BYU+0.50#4 of 138BAY-0.15#48 of 138
The two teams
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
BYU
BYU is in year 11 under Kalani Sitake, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 119th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
BYU has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 19% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss4.7%#2 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.50#4 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line7.7%#4 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#119 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1683, BAY Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -18.2 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BAY107th37thBYUBYU29th22ndBAYThrough the air
BAY15th56thBYUBYU84th43rdBAYOn the ground
BAY70th19thBYUBYU27th31stBAYStaying on the field
BAY68th90thBYUBYU4th100thBAYTaking care of it
BAY124th9thBYUBYU1st22ndBAY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BAY | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.1 (#20) | CORE overall | +15.5 (#27) |
| +9 / -8 | offense / defense | +12 / -3 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Baylor vs. BYU?
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Baylor vs. BYU?
The model projects BYU by 18.2.
What time is Baylor vs. BYU and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →