Colorado vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Baylor gets at Colorado: 30th at throwing it, against a unit 120th at defending the pass. Colorado projects no clear way in against Baylor. Baylor is also 25th on first and second down, against a unit 105th.
How
BAYattacks
COLO
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BAY#30 of 138COLO#120 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
BAY#25 of 138COLO#105 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BAY#25 of 138COLO#101 of 138
The two teams
Colorado
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th on first and second down, and they are 130th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#134projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#128projected
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, COLO Elo 1406 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
COLO70th75thBAYBAY122nd64thCOLOThrough the air
COLO54th114thBAYBAY20th104thCOLOOn the ground
COLO57th83rdBAYBAY116th46thCOLOStaying on the field
COLO66th131stBAYBAY112th100thCOLOTaking care of it
COLO68th30thBAYBAY68th30thCOLO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 10–7 · 41% have been one-possession games
| COLO | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#86) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 0.67 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Colorado vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 7.0.
What time is Colorado vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →