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Toledo

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

MAC · 26-8 · AdjEM +8.4, 89 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
+8.489 of 363
AdjO
115.09 of 363
AdjD
106.6276 of 363
AdjT
71.380 of 363

Toledo went from +9.8 (#62) on 2022-11-06 to +8.4 (#89) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +11.6 (#46) on 2022-11-14.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 34 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
56.3%5
TOV%
13.0%7
OREB%
26.7%181
FTA/FGA
34.4%87
Opp eFG%
52.9%297
Opp TOV%
17.7%129
DREB%
70.1%309
Opp FTA/FGA
27.5%73

Résumé26-8 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
-2.5226 of 363
Non-conference
+0.6174 of 363
Luck
+4.5%78 of 363
Wins above bubble
-1.665 of 363
Quad 1
1-1
Quad 2
2-4
Quad 3
8-0
Quad 4
15-3

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players12 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
RayJ DennisG3533.919.54.35.853.3%56.1%28.3%36.6%76.9%
Setric Millner Jr.F3532.516.15.91.856.7%60.0%22.9%42.0%78.4%
Ra'Heim MossG3530.38.54.22.455.0%59.6%14.5%33.0%79.8%
Dante Maddox Jr.G3529.911.33.81.961.7%64.9%16.7%45.1%75.2%
JT ShumateF3529.416.04.81.461.4%65.4%22.0%40.7%86.7%
EJ FarmerG3516.36.01.90.656.9%59.4%17.8%40.0%67.2%
AJ EduF3512.22.83.00.349.2%56.4%11.9%—71.2%
Andre LorentssonF347.72.51.50.453.0%57.3%15.7%36.4%84.2%
Tyler CochranG922.49.24.10.957.4%58.5%21.1%42.9%61.9%
Elijah WilsonG173.40.50.20.118.8%33.9%11.8%25.0%62.5%
J WallaceG111.80.40.50.225.0%23.6%23.5%0.0%0.0%
Colin O'RourkeF119.013.01.01.065.0%65.0%31.3%33.3%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games26-8

“Ours” is our projected margin for Toledo, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07vsValparaisoQ4#278W 85-70+13.3
11-11nUABQ1#47W 93-85-5.3
11-16vsOaklandQ4#264W 112-90+15.9
11-21nKansas CityQ4#313L 71-83+12.8
11-22nEast CarolinaQ4#208L 75-86+9.1
11-23nNorthern KentuckyQ3#161W 82-69+6.7
11-30vsRichmondQ3#136W 90-67+2.8
12-03@George MasonQ2#124L 73-80-4.4
12-06@Northern IowaQ3#205W 83-75-1.7
12-10vsCanisiusQ4#245W 69-68+14.8
12-17@MarshallQ2#94L 85-100-7.7
12-20@VermontQ2#99W 84-72-4.9
01-03vsBall StateQ4#166L 83-90+7.9
01-06vsWestern MichiganQ4#329W 102-74+18.7
01-10@Kent StateQ2#76L 63-75-8.0
01-14@Northern IllinoisQ4#248W 84-67+7.8
01-17vsOhioQ3#135W 90-75+6.4
01-20@BuffaloQ3#195W 86-77+1.8
01-24vsEastern MichiganQ4#321W 84-79+20.1
01-28vsBowling GreenQ4#292W 91-77+15.1
01-31@Miami (OH)Q4#290W 81-78+9.2
02-04vsCentral MichiganQ4#332W 84-59+16.7
02-07@AkronQ2#112W 84-74-4.2
02-11@Eastern MichiganQ4#321W 70-63+8.9
02-14vsMiami (OH)Q4#290W 89-71+16.5
02-18@Bowling GreenQ4#292W 91-86+6.9
02-21vsAkronQ3#112W 84-63+3.6
02-25vsBuffaloQ4#195W 101-71+9.4
02-28@Central MichiganQ4#332W 99-65+11.2
03-03@Ball StateQ3#166W 87-81+0.9
03-09nMiami (OH)Q4#290W 91-75+13.2
03-10nOhioQ3#135W 82-75+4.3
03-11nKent StateQ2#76L 78-93-1.1
03-14@MichiganQ1#48L 80-90-7.3

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.