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Valparaiso

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

MVC · 10-21 · AdjEM -9.2, 278 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
-9.2278 of 363
AdjO
96.0296 of 363
AdjD
105.2249 of 363
AdjT
71.096 of 363

Valparaiso went from -4.2 (#233) on 2022-11-06 to -9.2 (#278) on 2023-04-03, peaking at -3.4 (#217) on 2022-11-14.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 31 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
49.0%260
TOV%
16.9%169
OREB%
20.5%332
FTA/FGA
27.9%293
Opp eFG%
51.5%238
Opp TOV%
14.8%315
DREB%
77.5%35
Opp FTA/FGA
31.8%210

Résumé10-21 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
-1.4187 of 363
Non-conference
-4.5324 of 363
Luck
-1.7%225 of 363
Wins above bubble
-14.5298 of 363
Quad 1
0-1
Quad 2
1-8
Quad 3
0-8
Quad 4
9-4

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Ben KrikkeF3235.719.45.92.157.1%60.8%26.9%27.9%79.6%
Kobe KingG3235.316.24.11.744.8%49.5%27.7%22.1%76.8%
Quinton GreenG3130.110.74.61.049.8%52.6%19.7%33.3%74.2%
Nick EdwardsG3227.17.63.95.043.6%46.2%20.6%25.8%59.0%
Maximus NelsonF3118.14.63.30.351.5%52.6%15.1%34.2%100.0%
Connor BarrettG3116.84.11.70.457.6%59.5%12.3%35.4%77.8%
Darius DeAveiroG2515.41.81.62.733.0%38.6%12.7%18.8%61.9%
Ibra BayuF2712.02.42.70.552.5%51.8%15.3%16.7%40.0%
Jerome PalmF2313.61.94.00.341.9%43.5%10.2%0.0%50.0%
Preston RuedingerG920.72.12.31.025.9%30.3%11.5%17.6%80.0%
Joe HedstromC145.22.20.90.271.9%76.4%18.3%37.5%88.9%
Emil Freese-VilienC106.31.01.00.262.5%55.9%10.8%—0.0%
Cameron PalesseG49.50.50.50.30.0%16.8%9.7%0.0%100.0%
Luke MorrillG71.90.40.10.037.5%37.5%28.4%50.0%—
Joe VickG11.00.00.01.0——0.0%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games10-21

“Ours” is our projected margin for Valparaiso, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07@ToledoQ2#89L 70-85-13.3
11-13vsWestern MichiganQ4#329W 81-65+8.1
11-16@Chicago StateQ4#309L 74-87+7.0
11-19vsIncarnate WordQ4#351W 68-64+16.4
11-23@SamfordQ2#126L 49-79-13.4
11-25nSouth Dakota StateQ3#159L 50-61-11.6
11-27nJames MadisonQ2#100W 81-79-16.1
12-01@BelmontQ2#98L 64-76-16.4
12-04vsMurray StateQ4#199L 70-77-7.2
12-10@Ole MissQ2#114L 61-98-17.4
12-18vsElonQ4#331W 71-66+7.5
12-21vsStonehillQ4#298W 77-67+3.3
12-29@DrakeQ1#46L 63-68-18.5
01-01vsIndiana StateQ3#91L 50-68-4.8
01-04vsNorthern IowaQ4#205L 67-69-2.8
01-07@BradleyQ2#77L 66-88-21.1
01-10vsBelmontQ3#98L 59-74-7.8
01-14@EvansvilleQ4#353W 76-69-1.1
01-17vsUICQ4#282W 76-66+2.1
01-21@Illinois StateQ4#261W 71-51-8.9
01-25@Northern IowaQ3#205L 66-77-9.8
01-28vsEvansvilleQ4#353W 81-69+10.4
02-01@Missouri StateQ2#123L 67-76-13.2
02-04vsDrakeQ2#46L 82-85-10.1
02-08@Indiana StateQ2#91L 62-84-14.9
02-11vsIllinois StateQ4#261W 81-76+1.7
02-14vsSouthern IllinoisQ3#121L 62-66-5.3
02-19@UICQ4#282L 73-74-3.7
02-22vsBradleyQ3#77L 66-76-10.6
02-26@Murray StateQ3#199L 76-77-7.8
03-02nMurray StateQ3#199L 50-78-3.5

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.