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Toledo

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

MAC · 17-15 · AdjEM -6.4, 233 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →
AdjEM
-6.4233 of 364
AdjO
108.8100 of 364
AdjD
115.3350 of 364
AdjT
70.1156 of 364

Toledo went from +2.1 (#143) on 2024-11-03 to -6.4 (#233) on 2025-04-07, peaking at +2.5 (#137) on 2024-11-18.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 32 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
50.5%191
TOV%
12.9%11
OREB%
28.9%136
FTA/FGA
35.5%107
Opp eFG%
56.4%357
Opp TOV%
14.3%301
DREB%
71.0%252
Opp FTA/FGA
26.5%33

Résumé17-15 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength
-2.6192 of 364
Non-conference
+3.990 of 364
Luck
+9.5%13 of 364
Wins above bubble
-10.1185 of 364
Quad 1
0-3
Quad 2
0-3
Quad 3
5-5
Quad 4
12-4

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players12 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Sonny WilsonG3333.615.34.83.254.2%56.4%22.7%36.7%67.2%
Sam LewisG3331.516.24.71.254.3%57.6%24.4%44.4%76.6%
Isaiah AdamsG3330.011.13.53.444.6%49.5%21.8%29.6%81.5%
Javan SimmonsF3329.512.56.82.256.6%61.8%20.0%33.3%74.5%
Bryce FordG3321.87.12.80.852.8%57.0%15.6%37.2%85.7%
Seth HubbardG3321.08.42.91.341.2%48.5%22.2%17.8%85.6%
Andre LorentssonF3313.23.11.70.450.6%53.1%12.2%32.3%73.7%
Jaylan OuwingaF3211.42.91.80.554.1%56.0%13.6%50.0%65.2%
Grgur BrcicC268.92.52.20.264.3%58.8%13.0%—39.3%
Tyler OdeG124.40.30.30.221.4%21.4%8.5%16.7%—
Jaylen MurphyG52.81.00.20.235.7%35.7%28.5%20.0%—
Colin O'RourkeF11.02.00.00.0100.0%100.0%99.7%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games17-15

“Ours” is our projected margin for Toledo, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-04@TroyQ2#97L 74-84-4.0
11-09@MarshallQ3#171W 90-80+0.6
11-13vsWright StateQ4#206W 86-77+5.5
11-16@Detroit MercyQ4#343W 82-67+12.4
11-21nStetsonQ4#344W 103-78+9.7
11-22nJacksonville StateQ3#134W 82-80+4.7
11-23nUC San DiegoQ1#48L 45-80+1.3
11-30vsOaklandQ4#190L 52-85+8.5
12-14@Youngstown StateQ3#192L 87-93-3.9
12-18@HoustonQ1#2L 49-78-31.5
12-29@PurdueQ1#14L 64-83-22.4
01-04@Western MichiganQ4#299W 76-70+1.1
01-07vsEastern MichiganQ4#296W 90-87+13.2
01-10vsCentral MichiganQ4#228W 69-67+6.9
01-14@AkronQ2#112L 78-85-8.6
01-18@Ball StateQ4#281W 93-75-1.9
01-21vsKent StateQ3#131L 64-83+1.1
01-24@Bowling GreenQ4#283W 84-71+1.9
01-28@OhioQ3#177W 86-83-5.7
02-01vsNorthern IllinoisQ4#353W 89-85+16.8
02-04vsBuffaloQ4#350W 87-74+14.7
02-08vsJames MadisonQ3#135W 72-69-1.7
02-11@Miami (OH)Q3#168L 80-92-4.6
02-15@Eastern MichiganQ4#296L 73-80+5.5
02-18vsBall StateQ4#281W 67-66+7.3
02-21vsBowling GreenQ4#283L 68-69+8.2
02-25@Kent StateQ2#131L 65-105-7.7
03-01@BuffaloQ4#350L 74-87+8.0
03-04vsAkronQ3#112L 87-96-5.4
03-07vsOhioQ4#177W 96-82-1.9
03-13nOhioQ3#177W 90-85-4.0
03-14nAkronQ3#112L 90-100-8.3

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.