Arkansas State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Sun Belt · 24-11 · AdjEM +8.7, 91 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →

AdjEM: +8.791 of 364
AdjO: 109.791 of 364
AdjD: 101.0101 of 364
AdjT: 71.862 of 364

Arkansas State went from +3.8 (#130) on 2024-11-03 to +8.7 (#91) on 2025-04-07, peaking at +9.0 (#93) on 2025-02-03.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 35 complete games

Leaderboards →

eFG%: 49.6%246
TOV%: 13.4%25
OREB%: 32.5%51
FTA/FGA: 33.1%177
Opp eFG%: 46.1%11
Opp TOV%: 15.9%183
DREB%: 72.2%187
Opp FTA/FGA: 37.1%290

Résumé24-11 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength: -1.4167 of 364
Non-conference: +3.596 of 364
Luck: -3.2%249 of 364
Wins above bubble: -5.7104 of 364

Quad 1: 1-2
Quad 2: 2-3
Quad 3: 7-6
Quad 4: 14-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →

Player	G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	USG%	3P%	FT%
Taryn ToddG	36	29.9	14.8	4.5	3.3	45.1%	47.8%	27.9%	32.4%	64.9%
Terrance Ford Jr.G	35	30.2	9.0	2.9	4.9	51.4%	54.9%	16.3%	40.4%	71.1%
Joseph PinionG	36	25.8	12.0	4.1	1.4	55.7%	59.2%	20.6%	36.0%	88.7%
Kobe JulienF	32	28.4	11.9	5.3	1.5	44.6%	49.6%	23.3%	27.3%	72.1%
Izaiyah NelsonF	31	24.1	10.6	8.9	0.6	58.8%	61.6%	19.0%	6.7%	73.3%
Derrian FordG	34	21.0	8.0	3.4	0.7	47.1%	51.2%	19.1%	32.1%	82.8%
Rashaud MarshallF	35	17.4	4.7	5.3	0.3	56.7%	59.9%	12.5%	—	65.8%
Dyondre DominguezF	33	12.1	4.9	2.5	0.7	52.1%	57.4%	19.5%	32.0%	78.4%
Avery FeltsG	33	11.3	2.4	1.2	0.6	48.7%	49.1%	11.3%	33.3%	60.0%
Cody HeadG	19	6.2	2.5	0.8	0.8	41.3%	46.0%	25.1%	15.4%	76.9%
Josh HillF	17	6.5	3.5	1.8	0.1	48.2%	49.0%	27.7%	26.8%	53.8%
Justin JohnsonG	16	5.9	3.3	1.4	0.5	62.1%	64.5%	23.0%	27.3%	70.6%
Kameron JohnsonF	12	4.7	1.3	1.2	0.1	57.1%	68.1%	12.6%	—	80.0%
Zane ButlerG	12	3.5	0.8	0.3	0.3	40.9%	41.8%	15.9%	33.3%	50.0%
Jacob St. ClairG	7	2.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	27.8%	27.8%	25.2%	16.7%	—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games24-11

“Ours” is our projected margin for Arkansas State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

Date	Opponent	Quad	Result	Ours	Pace	Snapshot
11-04	vsAkron	Q3#112	W 80-75	+2.6	69	11-03
11-08	@Alabama	Q1#6	L 79-88	-24.8	71	11-04
11-12	vsLittle Rock	Q4#226	W 80-63	+14.4	72	11-11
11-16	vsStephen F. Austin	Q4#264	W 59-49	+8.9	71	11-11
11-29	nIndiana State	Q3#169	W 86-81	+4.5	72	11-25
11-30	nRice	Q3#187	L 67-75	+6.7	71	11-25
12-01	nHofstra	Q3#184	L 66-68	+4.0	70	11-25
12-05	vsJackson State	Q4#273	W 66-64	+21.2	72	12-02
12-08	@Memphis	Q1#55	W 85-72	-15.5	72	12-02
12-12	vsUT Arlington	Q4#213	W 83-79	+7.7	72	12-09
12-15	@UAB	Q2#101	W 98-89	-0.2	72	12-09
12-21	vsCoastal Carolina	Q4#315	W 97-67	+14.0	70	12-16
01-02	@Old Dominion	Q4#308	W 78-59	+14.8	73	12-30
01-04	@James Madison	Q2#135	L 62-67	-2.0	71	12-30
01-09	@South Alabama	Q3#136	L 62-76	-0.4	70	01-06
01-11	@Troy	Q2#97	W 84-78	-1.8	71	01-06
01-16	vsLouisiana	Q4#310	W 83-63	+18.4	71	01-13
01-18	vsGeorgia State	Q4#244	W 85-59	+15.7	71	01-13
01-23	vsApp State	Q3#148	W 65-55	+4.1	70	01-20
01-25	vsTexas State	Q4#197	W 80-65	+9.1	71	01-20
01-29	@Southern Miss	Q4#291	W 81-68	+9.6	72	01-27
02-01	@Texas State	Q3#197	W 85-74	+2.7	70	01-27
02-05	@Marshall	Q3#171	L 72-77	+4.8	71	02-03
02-08	@Kent State	Q2#131	L 75-76	+2.7	70	02-03
02-12	vsSouthern Miss	Q4#291	W 101-67	+15.8	72	02-10
02-15	vsTroy	Q3#97	L 70-71	+4.7	70	02-10
02-19	vsSouth Alabama	Q3#136	L 56-60	+8.7	69	02-17
02-22	vsUL Monroe	Q4#347	W 95-70	+22.5	71	02-17
02-26	@Louisiana	Q4#310	W 83-64	+11.1	70	02-24
02-28	@UL Monroe	Q4#347	W 94-67	+16.1	71	02-24
03-08	nMarshall	Q3#171	W 77-74	+6.5	71	03-03
03-09	nSouth Alabama	Q3#136	W 74-71	+4.5	69	03-03
03-10	nTroy	Q2#97	L 81-94	+1.7	70	03-03
03-18	vsSaint Louis	Q3#107	W 103-78	+3.8	71	03-17
03-23	@North Texas	Q1#64	L 63-65	-6.8	67	03-17

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.