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Sacramento State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Big Sky · 4-25 · AdjEM -18.4, 341 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →
AdjEM
-18.4341 of 364
AdjO
93.1348 of 364
AdjD
111.5306 of 364
AdjT
67.2306 of 364

Sacramento State went from -13.1 (#307) on 2024-11-03 to -18.4 (#341) on 2025-04-07, peaking at -9.8 (#271) on 2024-11-25.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 29 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
48.0%302
TOV%
19.4%347
OREB%
26.9%210
FTA/FGA
31.3%228
Opp eFG%
55.1%346
Opp TOV%
16.1%161
DREB%
75.3%46
Opp FTA/FGA
39.2%319

Résumé4-25 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength
-4.6259 of 364
Non-conference
-2.5265 of 364
Luck
-7.2%321 of 364
Wins above bubble
-22.0357 of 364
Quad 1
0-1
Quad 2
0-3
Quad 3
0-7
Quad 4
4-14

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players14 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Bailey NunnG3029.16.52.43.635.2%39.5%18.4%27.0%67.7%
Jacob HoltF3226.816.36.91.156.1%60.1%31.0%34.8%71.8%
Lachlan BrewerG3127.16.03.21.160.9%59.6%12.4%44.6%42.9%
EJ Neal Jr.G3225.98.03.11.650.2%52.2%17.9%34.2%76.5%
Emil SkyttaG2529.28.03.32.752.7%52.2%19.2%27.1%46.3%
Julian VaughnsG2423.310.92.81.449.3%52.6%26.2%34.8%78.4%
Michael WilsonG2719.34.43.30.950.0%54.2%13.7%34.4%79.3%
Chudi DiorammaF3212.55.73.70.461.5%62.6%24.2%0.0%64.7%
Leo RickettsG1615.44.61.81.246.6%48.2%19.6%27.8%75.0%
Bowyn BeattyF1614.22.13.20.835.5%43.3%12.2%16.7%73.3%
Deonte WilliamsG1311.03.42.21.136.2%39.6%24.7%0.0%55.6%
Alex KovatchevG425.08.55.00.348.5%49.4%21.0%28.6%66.7%
Jalen PitreF512.42.63.41.446.4%46.4%18.0%25.0%—
Kiir Kiir Chol DengF110.00.02.00.00.0%0.0%21.3%0.0%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games4-25

“Ours” is our projected margin for Sacramento State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-08@Fresno StateQ4#257L 57-64-7.4
11-12@UC San DiegoQ1#48L 54-64-15.3
11-16vsCal State NorthridgeQ3#142L 69-79-3.0
11-24@CaliforniaQ2#114L 77-83-16.6
11-27@Air ForceQ4#282W 63-61-6.5
11-30vsMercyhurstQ4#330L 60-66+6.6
12-04@DenverQ4#298L 59-80-0.7
12-07vsOmahaQ4#181L 60-70+2.3
12-14vsUC DavisQ4#245L 62-69-5.7
12-17@Oregon StateQ2#95L 45-82-21.2
01-04vsPortland StateQ4#219W 56-53-2.4
01-09vsIdahoQ4#276L 67-80-0.7
01-11vsEastern WashingtonQ4#267L 54-65-3.1
01-16@Northern ArizonaQ4#271L 53-77-7.3
01-18@Northern ColoradoQ2#133L 64-68-17.2
01-23vsIdaho StateQ4#209W 75-71-6.5
01-25vsWeber StateQ4#288L 81-87-3.5
01-30@Montana StateQ3#178L 58-70-13.6
02-01@MontanaQ3#154L 59-87-11.2
02-06@Eastern WashingtonQ4#267L 80-83-10.4
02-08@IdahoQ4#276L 76-78-8.8
02-13vsNorthern ColoradoQ3#133L 61-77-9.3
02-15vsNorthern ArizonaQ4#271L 61-65-1.6
02-20@Weber StateQ4#288W 80-77-7.3
02-22@Idaho StateQ3#209L 66-83-11.5
02-27vsMontanaQ3#154L 54-60-8.1
03-01vsMontana StateQ4#178L 60-87-7.3
03-03@Portland StateQ3#219L 56-59-11.3
03-08nWeber StateQ4#288L 70-83-4.1

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.