Memphis vs. Charlotte Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Memphis gets at Charlotte: 10th at running it, against a unit 136th at defending the run. Where Charlotte gets at Memphis: 12th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Memphis is also 20th in the push up front, against a unit 134th.
How
MEMattacks
CLT
- 1
Run it
running it · 21% this season, 2 games
MEM+0.30#10 of 138CLT+0.38#136 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 20% this season, 2 games
MEM3.75#20 of 138CLT3.14#134 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 21% this season, 2 games
MEM5.00#45 of 138CLT7.00#138 of 138
HowCLTattacksMEM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 37% this season, 1 game
CLT1.49#12 of 138MEM1.35#108 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 10th at running it. The way in is 108th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 24% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offenserunning it+0.30#10 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets3.75#20 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.35#108 of 138
Charlotte
Charlotte is in year 2 under Tim Albin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 138th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Charlotte has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.49#12 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it+0.42#138 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground48%#138 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down49%#138 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1139, MEM Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +14.7 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM20th113thCLTCLT27th119thMEMThrough the air
MEM89th32ndCLTCLT24th127thMEMOn the ground
MEM19th132ndCLTCLT39th89thMEMStaying on the field
MEM81st125thCLTCLT8th57thMEMTaking care of it
MEM95th118thCLTCLT68th14thMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | -15.6 (#131) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. Charlotte?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. Charlotte?
The model projects Memphis by 14.7.
What time is Memphis vs. Charlotte and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →