Memphis vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 13:30BOISMaddux Madsen 1 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)20–38
- Q3 6:27BOISCam Bates 72 Yd Punt Return (Canaan Moore Kick)20–31
- Q3 8:06BOISSire Gaines 11 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)20–24
- Q2 0:00MEMPhilippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 1:07BOISRasean Jones 19 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:28BOISAkeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:10MEMJaylin Carter 80 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–3
- Q2 9:33MEMPhilippe Laforge 33 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:14MEMHunter Tipton 87 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:37BOISCanaan Moore 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Memphis grades better nearly everywhere the field is open, but Boise State owns the two yards that turn field position into points.
Two seasons ago in Memphis, the Tigers took this fixture 35-32, and the unit grades say that was earned rather than stolen: Memphis holds the edge in the run game, in explosive passing, and in overall offensive efficiency. Boise State is favored anyway, projected 38-24, and the reason sits inside two yards. Boise State's short-yardage and goal-line power is the widest edge on the board at plus 1.84, and it converts field position into seven points where Memphis settles for three.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MEM ahead, below = BOIS ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassMarcus Stokes 17/25, 384 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaylin Carter 9 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Tipton 9 REC, 229 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMaddux Madsen 17/28, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDylan Riley 19 CAR, 206 YDS
- RecAkeem Wright 4 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Boise State?
Memphis 20, Boise State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| MEM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 519 | Total yards | 578 |
| 384 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 135 | Rushing yards | 357 |
| 17 | First downs | 28 |
| 1-8 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/26 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 14.8 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-54 | Penalties | 10-87 |
| 20:04 | Possession | 39:56 |
- Q4 13:30BOISMaddux Madsen 1 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)20–38
- Q3 6:27BOISCam Bates 72 Yd Punt Return (Canaan Moore Kick)20–31
- Q3 8:06BOISSire Gaines 11 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)20–24
- Q2 0:00MEMPhilippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q2 1:07BOISRasean Jones 19 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)17–17
- Q2 2:28BOISAkeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)17–10
- Q2 7:10MEMJaylin Carter 80 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)17–3
- Q2 9:33MEMPhilippe Laforge 33 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:14MEMHunter Tipton 87 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:37BOISCanaan Moore 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1569, MEM Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -9.1 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.1 (#46) | CORE overall | +6.6 (#45) |
| +10 / +4 | offense / defense | +7 / +1 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Boise State's Short-yardage edge is Memphis's only real problem
Memphis grades better nearly everywhere the field is open, but Boise State owns the two yards that turn field position into points.
Memphis wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Boise State, the more likely Boise State wins.
The margin gets built two yards at a time
Dylan Riley projects for 49 to 138 rushing yards with a 56 percent chance of reaching the end zone, and Sire Gaines 44 to 91 with a 49 percent chance. Neither needs a long run to matter; Boise State's edge lives on third-and-two and first-and-goal, where the unit grades give Memphis no counter. Memphis has allowed 22.5 points a game through two wins, and short yardage is the down-and-distance where that figure gets tested rather than confirmed.
Boise State only cashes that edge if its drives live long enough to reach short yardage. At Oregon the Broncos went three-and-out on 53.8 percent of 13 drives and averaged 25.3 yards per possession, a team built for the goal line that rarely got near it. Maddux Madsen carries an 83 percent chance of a touchdown pass, and Boise State needs those throws to move the offense into the range where Riley and Gaines finish drives.
Memphis arrives from the opposite kind of afternoon, handling Arkansas State 42-24 while scoring on half of its 12 drives at 42.9 yards apiece. Two games sit against a full preseason baseline, the baseline still carries the projection, and the recent form belongs to Memphis. Boise State's 27-34 loss came at Oregon, a stiffer test than Arkansas State, which is why an 0-1 record moves this number toward Memphis less than the two scoreboards suggest.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Boise State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Boise State's skill group has a past; Memphis's does not
Maddux Madsen threw in 11 games last season and projects for 167 to 290 passing yards, the most grounded projection on either side. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines each played 14 games, Matt Wagner 13. Boise State is asking the same people who produced last November to produce Saturday, which is why its projections cluster where Memphis's fan out across a hundred yards of possible afternoons.
Marcus Stokes projects for 154 to 290 passing yards with a 39 percent touchdown chance off a single game of record, and Jemyri Davis, Braylon Burnside and Tychaun Chapman all carry the same wide bands. Memphis's range of outcomes is genuinely fatter in both directions: the Tigers put up 42 last week, and nothing on the record rules out either end of Stokes's range in Boise.
Memphis's secondary is what can flatten this
Madsen throws into a pass defense ranked 47th of 185 by what it allows, and the passing matchup at minus 1.57 is the one unit edge that belongs to Memphis outright. Ben Ford, 26 to 74 receiving yards with a 54 percent touchdown chance, and Quinton Brown, 16 to 48, work that same coverage. If Memphis holds up there, the power run becomes Boise State's whole offense, and 38 points is a lot to grind out two yards at a time.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Memphis's defense is one of the best in the country — better than 100% of FBS defenses.
Going the other way, Jaylin Carter runs at a defense ranked 121st of 185 against the run and projects for 56 to 138 yards, with Manny Covey adding 27 to 65 behind him. Jemyri Davis, 31 to 93 receiving, is the vertical piece against a Boise State group that surrendered 34 points at Oregon. Memphis does not need Stokes to be sharp if Carter reaches the upper half of that band.
What has to break for Memphis
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Boise State are battles it should win; toward Memphis are ones Memphis wins.
The Tigers' honest path is the 2023 path: stay on schedule, keep Boise State off third-and-short, and make Madsen win it against the better secondary. Memphis scored on half its drives last week and owns the field-level edges everywhere the chains are longer than two yards, including overall efficiency at plus 1.32. The lane is still narrow. Memphis is an 18 percent side, and a one-score finish sits at 28 percent.
Boise State needs its drives to survive first and second down; a 53.8 percent three-and-out rate never puts Riley and Gaines on the field in short yardage. Memphis needs Carter at the top of his 56 to 138 range and Davis to hit something over the top before the goal-line math buries the Tigers. There is a 40 percent chance the margin clears 20 points, and Boise State's 34 points allowed at Oregon says either side could be on the wrong end of it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →