Arkansas State vs Memphis Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 5, 2026

Arkansas State lost 37 players to the portal and brought back 25, a net bleed of 35 recruiting stars that landed hardest at receiver and on the defensive line. That churn, more than anything Memphis has shown this fall, is why the number is 11.2. The last meeting, in 2023, ended 34 points apart, and neither roster from that night is intact.

0%

-38

0%

-32

1%

-24

1%

-18

3%

-10

7%

-4

12%

+4

17%

+10

18%

+18

17%

+24

12%

+32

7%

+38

3%

+46

Arkansas State winsMemphis wins

Market: Memphis −11Projected: Memphis by 16 (86%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Memphis, the more likely Memphis wins.

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A teardown, not a churn

Quan Lee and Damarcco Blanton were the two receivers who mattered, and both are gone. Quincy Wright walked to Utah State off a defensive front that finished 28th nationally in sacks; Shakai Woods arrives from Middle Tennessee to help replace him. Memphis moved 47 players out and 51 in and came out ahead on talent. Its offseason was a reload.

The No. 5 run game returns zero percent

Memphis owned the No. 5 rushing offense in the country last season by opponent-adjusted efficiency and returns zero percent of that production. Arkansas State returns 31% of its passing production and nothing on the ground. Both offensive-line rooms were rebuilt through the portal, Memphis adding tackles Xavier Allen and Brian Grant after losing Parker Peterson.

Six Days ago, Memphis won ugly at UNLV

The 27-21 win scored on 41.7% of 12 drives, went three-and-out on a third of them, and averaged 38.6 yards per possession. Marcus Stokes threw 26 times for 223 yards and two scores. Jaylin Carter took 15 touches for 97 and a touchdown, and Jemyri Davis turned three touches into 62.

The quarterback with FBS production isn't starting

Stokes came from West Florida with no FBS snaps. Trey Owens came from Texas with none either, and Drew Dickey arrives from Vanderbilt in the same condition. Behind Owens sits Ethan Crawford, who has three FBS seasons at Arkansas State and graded at +0.085 EPA per play. He is not the projected starter.

Arkansas State's pass rush is the exception

Thirty-one sacks ranked 28th nationally, and Nigel Nelson plus safeties Brandon Greil and Brandon Barnes are back from it. Memphis generated 19 sacks, 103rd, yet took 12 interceptions, 31st, and ranked 23rd in tackles for loss. That defense wins on turnovers rather than pressure, the profile that punishes a first-time starter into a bad throw.

How Arkansas State stays inside two touchdowns

Chauncy Cobb graded at +0.54 EPA per play on a 15% target share, and he projects for 29 to 76 receiving yards against that 117th-ranked coverage. The rushing offense finished 125th and returns nobody, so Owens has to throw to keep pace. Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer project for roughly 22 to 76 combined yards.

Memphis needs Carter to hit his 60-to-147-yard band so Stokes, projected for 165 to 312 passing yards, isn't asked to solve anything on third down. Arkansas State needs its front to reach two brand-new tackles early and turn the possession math. Memphis covers 11.2 in about 64% of projected outcomes, and a one-score finish comes in around one chance in four.

◄Arkansas StatefavorsMemphis►

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageMemphis +9

Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthMemphis +4

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonArkansas State +3

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeMemphis +2

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Memphis are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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