Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Memphis gets at Tulane: 31st in the push up front, against a unit 82nd at holding the line of scrimmage. Where Tulane gets at Memphis: 42nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 100th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Memphis is also 20th at running it, against a unit 68th.
How
MEMattacks
TULN
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MEM#31 of 138TULN#82 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
MEM#20 of 138TULN#68 of 138
HowTULNattacksMEM
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TULN#42 of 138MEM#100 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
TULN#52 of 138MEM#97 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at running it. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 104th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#20projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#31projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
- Defensethrowing it#104projected
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 116th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#116projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1529, MEM Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN +1.8 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM20th67thTULNTULN118th119thMEMThrough the air
MEM89th31stTULNTULN91st127thMEMOn the ground
MEM19th130thTULNTULN129th89thMEMStaying on the field
MEM81st103rdTULNTULN126th57thMEMTaking care of it
MEM95th88thTULNTULN31st14thMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 25–16–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| MEM | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#74) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -6 / -5 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 0.25 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. Tulane?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. Tulane?
The model projects Memphis by 1.8.
What time is Memphis vs. Tulane and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 16, 7:30 PM ET, at Yulman Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →