Memphis vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Memphis gets at Navy: 31st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 127th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Navy gets at Memphis: 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 67th at generating havoc. Memphis is also 20th at running it, against a unit 102nd.
How
MEMattacks
NAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MEM#31 of 138NAVY#127 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
MEM#20 of 138NAVY#102 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MEM#31 of 138NAVY#91 of 138
HowNAVYattacksMEM
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138MEM#67 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
NAVY#58 of 138MEM#104 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#21 of 138MEM#65 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at running it. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 104th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#20projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#31projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
- Defensethrowing it#104projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1550, MEM Elo 1566 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +4.5 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM20th111thNAVYNAVY45th119thMEMThrough the air
MEM89th73rdNAVYNAVY137th127thMEMOn the ground
MEM19th7thNAVYNAVY1st89thMEMStaying on the field
MEM81st27thNAVYNAVY16th57thMEMTaking care of it
MEM95th118thNAVYNAVY1st14thMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 6–5 · Navy has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| MEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#101) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. Navy?
The model projects Memphis by 4.5.
What time is Memphis vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →