Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Missouri gets at Mississippi State: 26th in the push up front, against a unit 124th at holding the line of scrimmage. Mississippi State projects no clear way in against Missouri. Missouri is also 18th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 110th.
How
MIZattacks
MSST
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MIZ#26 of 138MSST#124 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
MIZ#18 of 138MSST#110 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MIZ#19 of 138MSST#92 of 138
The two teams
Missouri
Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th on early downs defensively. The way in is 111th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Missouri has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#5projected
- Defensethrowing it#9projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#111projected
Mississippi State
Mississippi State is in year 3 under Jeff Lebby. The strengths are offensive, led by 35th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 124th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 110th at shutting down the ground game.
Mississippi State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#124projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#110projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1642, MIZ Elo 1691 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +10.7 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MIZ34th38thMSSTMSST6th17thMIZThrough the air
MIZ16th73rdMSSTMSST18th26thMIZOn the ground
MIZ47th23rdMSSTMSST9th36thMIZStaying on the field
MIZ34th21stMSSTMSST24th12thMIZTaking care of it
MIZ48th127thMSSTMSST21st46thMIZ
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MIZ | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.6 (#13) | CORE overall | +28.6 (#6) |
| +8 / -13 | offense / defense | +18 / -11 |
| 3.46 | points / drive | 5.09 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 5% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Missouri vs. Mississippi State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri vs. Mississippi State?
The model projects Missouri by 10.7.
What time is Missouri vs. Mississippi State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Davis Wade Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →