#10Justin Herbert

QB·Oregon·2019 20188.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Justin Herbert is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Oregon. Justin's 2019 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 459 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Herbert's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

286/428 Comp/Att3471 Pass yards32 Pass TD6 INT66.8% Comp %

Rushing

50 Rush yards4 Rush TD58 Carries0.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat83
Consistency80
Clutch98

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Nevada (SP+ -12).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAuburn	L21-27	21.0	28/37	242	1	0	43.4	-16	0	0.18
2	vsNevada	W77-6	-12.3	19/26	310	5	0	94.2	—	—	0.94
3	vsMontana	W35-3	—	30/42	316	5	0	91.4	18	0	0.53
4	@Stanford	W21-6	-4.7	19/24	259	3	0	78.5	-22	0	0.53
6	vsCalifornia	W17-7	-2.6	20/33	214	1	1	49.9	32	0	0.14
7	vsColorado	W45-3	-4.1	18/32	261	2	0	74.3	-12	0	0.40
8	@Washington	W35-31	18.3	24/38	280	4	0	80.7	4	0	0.61
9	vsWashington State	W37-35	11.1	21/30	222	0	0	62.6	-8	0	0.18
10	@USC	W56-24	13.1	21/26	225	3	1	—	8	1	0.73
12	vsArizona	W34-6	-8.0	20/28	333	4	1	—	-16	0	0.63
13	@Arizona State	L28-31	6.3	20/36	304	2	2	—	-9	0	0.20
14	vsOregon State	W24-10	-0.7	18/30	174	1	0	—	22	0	0.04
15	vsUtah	W37-15	19.5	14/26	193	1	0	—	20	0	0.19
1	vsWisconsin	W28-27	20.3	14/20	138	0	1	—	29	3	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.4%

Passing plays

95.9%

Rushing plays

7.2%

Standard downs

42.2%

Passing downs

70.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Oregon	8.0	0.486	—	230.1
2019	Oregon	8.0	0.530	+0.04	230.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.